MaxLinear, Inc. (NASDAQ:MXL) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quinn Bolton: Got it. And then, just quickly, you had mentioned some of the actions you’re taking including reduction and forward site consolidation, prioritization of certain projects yet. Your guidance for OpEx, I think is flattish sequentially in December, kind of in line with where we were already looking for OpEx to be in Q4. And so I guess I didn’t see much of a change in the OpEx outlook. Are these options – sorry that the cost reduction plans you’ve talked about, does that kick in really more in the first half of next year is 75 is a right runrate kind of as a baseline or do you think it could move lower next year?

Steven Litchfield: So I’ll comment a little bit on just overall expense reduction efforts, right? So we did start early in the year. We’ve made some changes and then more recently, we’ve made some additional changes that will start to impact Q4 and beyond. So you don’t see so much in the Q4 timeframe just because it’s beginning now. You’ll see that continued to come down throughout next year pretty linearly. Sometimes that’s masked a little bit by some of the NRE that we take as an offset to OpEx. And – but I would expect to see the overall OpEx number to climb throughout the year. And so, I think, I mean, if I was to put a number on it, it’s probably $285 million to $290 million next year. So that’s the kind of the size of the decline. And that also offset some additional NREs that we had taken which were much larger in 2023. Got it. Thanks for the additional color, Steve.

Steven Litchfield: Sure.

Operator: Our next question is from Gary Mobley with Wells Fargo. Please proceed.

Gary Mobley: Hey guys. Thanks for taking my question. Looking at your largest customer, it looks like they purchased by $90 million of products from you in the third quarter of last year, and that’s probably down something less than $10 million in this most recent quarter. So, my question is, what’s the right level for purchases with this customer, which I presume is, representative of your broadband cable and Wi-Fi business? And does your current fourth quarter guidance and maybe your longer term view contemplate the transition of this business away from that customer to the hands of somebody else?

Steven Litchfield: So, Gary, I mean, with regard to some of the disclosures and the top customers, we’ve had a very large customer for a while. I think you’ve heard us talk about our top customers are often kind of more, I’m going to refer to them more as kind of box vendors that kind of sit in, in between us in the operator. And I think you’re well aware of most of these services providers are looking to kind of keep multiple silicon vendors in the mix. So that they’ve got some leverage. We don’t see that changing much. And so we don’t necessarily put too much weight on these customers they ebb and flow from time to time. And even this year we’ve actually seen some of our top customers switch as different service providers start to ramp. We’ve actually seen that through this year, and we’ve seen some nice improvements on some of these newer customers.

Gary Mobley: Okay. A question for Kishore as a follow-up. Kishore, you mentioned in your prepared remarks some design win traction I think is how you phrase it for Keystone in the, in the datacenter market. So, I think you also mentioned a revenue ramp into the second half of the year. How much visibility do you have this time in that revenue ramp and how influential can some of these early days design wins be for MaxLinear?

Kishore Seendripu : So I think the two parts this question. I mean, the visibility is very, very clear, right? In the sense that you work directly with the OEMs or module makers with this transceivers or cable manufacturers, optical cable manufacturers we directly work with them. And you work with them because they are being aligned up to utilize our silicon at the endpoints which is usually the data center folks. And so you have direct visibility. Now the timing of when each one ramps and now how the distribution portioning of the revenue goes, he’s the one that you have a little bit of what I call uncertainty of how the fact that we are in the mix, the fact that certain equals are going well. And the interaction the commitment to take us through all the qualification processes is the direct visibility you have.

So having said that, like I said my prepared remarks the interops and quals are going on still and we feel very good that our silicon is sound and strong and the interops will go favorably at this at the stage. That’s our conviction and that’s our – what I call reading the tea leaves, if you will. Regarding how much influence they will have on our revenues? Absolutely right. Even if you were to – you don’t do game plan you always have to do a bottom update plan for revenues. And but if I were to map all of that, we hope to expect about 20% share sometime in the three to five year window of each of our customers. That’s our base plan and if you exceed that, you’ll do much better. So, how big can the business been five years, obviously it can be somewhere between a hundred to few hundred million dollars.

Right? That’s a wild card here. So, yes, and that’s the basis on which, including wireless optical, and the accelerator business is where the confidence comes that, in a five year window our infrastructure business should be in the in the ballpark of in the $500 million range, right? And that’s the goal and all of which I would say optical and storage activities are the greatest growth curve, ahead of them.

Gary Mobley: That’s good details. Thanks Kishore.

Operator: Our next question is from Christopher Rolland with Susquehanna. Please proceed.

Christopher Rolland: Hey guys. Thanks for the question. I guess, the first one is just kind of the swings that we’ve seen here from peak to now trough going from 105 million in connectivity to 15, for example have just kind of been incredible. So, I guess, first of all do you kind of you guys really view this as all inventory digestion? Like are we done in connectivity? I don’t see how it can get too much kind of lower than this. But do you have any idea of how much extra inventory is out there in the channel? And then, moving forward, are you guys rethinking kind of systems to judge this inventory level that’s out there – there are new kind of processes that can be put in place to have a better view.

Kishore Seendripu : So you know, if you were not analyzing the channel and the inventory, we shouldn’t be in this job, right? In the first place. So, obviously, we are analyzing this to get and sometimes it’s very difficult because, there is a certain level of guarded disposition from your customer to their customers. So the closer they are to you the more information you get a little bit more accurate. But I just want to hop back a little bit more, one of the most important things we need to start guessing or my educated guesses is about when did the old build start. It started that’s assumed the ownership that’s happened in the pandemic period over the last two to three years. And if you think that there was a, let’s assume a 30% over shipment, and then you’re looking at probably three quarters worth of at least actual planned that is sufficiently provisioned.

And how far are we into it? Maybe we are into a quarter of it, right? If that is the logic, you go run through as our logic of people should then you should start expecting a recovery somewhere in the second half of next year. Can you dial it in within a quarter? No. The second part of it is like, have the dynamics in the business changed? No. I mean, always we get excited about the latest and the greatest new offer in technology blah, blah, blah. And our customers talk a bit and our customer’s customer talk about it because I hate to say that’s what investors want to hear. Okay, but the real revenues are generated by older products. Products that are actually long-term. They’re sticky because of software or performance of whatsoever. And they’re also costed down for the customer.