On August 20, Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) reported second-quarter revenue of $206 million, more than four times what it brought in a year earlier, and closed the quarter with a record $1.8 billion in backlog. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance of $900 million to $1 billion in revenue and said it still expects positive adjusted EBITDA for 2026. Behind those headline numbers sits a business spending heavily to chase a market it says has grown far beyond the moon.
Bull Case: A Business Firing On Every Cylinder
The quarter’s standout number was bookings. Intuitive Machines logged $1.7 billion in bookings so far this year, including $1.2 billion in the second quarter alone, the highest quarterly total in company history. Management said that volume reflects a shift away from depending on any single customer or mission type. The $1.8 billion backlog now splits roughly 37% civil, 49% commercial and 14% national security, and Q2 bookings skewed even further toward commercial and national security work, at 50% and 30% respectively.
That diversification showed up across every part of the business. NASA selected Intuitive Machines for the CS-8 lunar delivery mission, its sixth award under the CLPS contract, extending its delivery cadence into 2030. On the national security side, the company finished delivering all 16 satellites for the SDA’s Tranche 1 tracking layer, added an 18-satellite Tranche 3 award, and picked up another 18 satellites tied to the Golden Dome missile defense architecture. It now has more than 70 IM-300 series spacecraft under contract. Commercially, it landed three geostationary communication satellites worth over $600 million and deployed SiriusXM-11 during the quarter. Gross profit swung to $36 million from negative $12 million a year earlier, evidence that the growing satellite manufacturing business is starting to convert into real profit.
Bear Case: Growth Investment Comes At A Price
That expansion is not free. Operating loss widened to $47 million, driven by higher SG&A, amortization, and a $14.7 million cost adjustment tied to the IM-4 lunar lander program. SG&A itself hit $60 million for the quarter, including $11 million in stock-based compensation and $8 million in acquisition and integration costs from recent deals. Operating cash used came to $60 million, and total cash deployed for the quarter reached $84 million once inventory buildup, acquisition costs, and a $17 million milestone payment to SpaceX are included.
The company is also leaning on equity markets to fund the buildout. It raised $235 million in net proceeds this quarter through its at-the-market stock program, bringing total gross proceeds raised to date to $291 million at an average price of $26.81 a share. Capital expenditures of $24 million went largely toward its NSNS satellite constellation and ground network, and management said CapEx will stay elevated in coming quarters as it builds out five satellites at once.
What Hedge Funds And Short Sellers Are Doing
Hedge fund ownership of Intuitive Machines climbed to 30 funds in the most recent quarter from 28 the quarter before, a modest increase in institutional interest. Short sellers tell a very different story: 27.14% of the float is sold short, a level that signals heavy organized skepticism about the stock. That combination points to a market that is split on whether the backlog converts into results or the cash burn catches up first.
The Path Forward Remains Unwritten
Intuitive Machines enters the back half of 2026 with more backlog, more contract diversity, and more spending than it has ever carried at once. The bull case rests on that $1.8 billion backlog turning into the $900 million to $1 billion in guided revenue, with 25% to 30% of it already expected to land this year. The bear case rests on whether operating losses and share issuance keep pace with, or outrun, that growth.
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