Hedge Funds Aren’t Crazy About Adecoagro SA (AGRO) Anymore

The latest 13F reporting period has come and gone, and Insider Monkey is again at the forefront when it comes to making use of this gold mine of data. We at Insider Monkey have gone over 730 13F filings that hedge funds and well-known value investors are required to file by the SEC. The 13F filings show the funds’ and investors’ portfolio positions as of June 28th. In this article we look at what those investors think of Adecoagro SA (NYSE:AGRO).

Adecoagro SA (NYSE:AGRO) was in 12 hedge funds’ portfolios at the end of June. AGRO investors should pay attention to a decrease in support from the world’s most elite money managers of late. There were 17 hedge funds in our database with AGRO positions at the end of the previous quarter. Our calculations also showed that AGRO isn’t among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds (see the video below).
5 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds
Video: Click the image to watch our video about the top 5 most popular hedge fund stocks.

Hedge funds’ reputation as shrewd investors has been tarnished in the last decade as their hedged returns couldn’t keep up with the unhedged returns of the market indices. Our research has shown that hedge funds’ large-cap stock picks indeed failed to beat the market between 1999 and 2016. However, we were able to identify in advance a select group of hedge fund holdings that outperformed the market by 40 percentage points since May 2014 through May 30, 2019 (see the details here). We were also able to identify in advance a select group of hedge fund holdings that’ll significantly underperform the market. We have been tracking and sharing the list of these stocks since February 2017 and they lost 25.7% through September 30, 2019. That’s why we believe hedge fund sentiment is an extremely useful indicator that investors should pay attention to.


Unlike former hedge manager, Dr. Steve Sjuggerud, who is convinced Dow will soar past 40000, our long-short investment strategy doesn’t rely on bull markets to deliver double digit returns. We only rely on hedge fund buy/sell signals. We’re going to take a peek at the key hedge fund action surrounding Adecoagro SA (NYSE:AGRO).

How have hedgies been trading Adecoagro SA (NYSE:AGRO)?

At the end of the second quarter, a total of 12 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey held long positions in this stock, a change of -29% from the first quarter of 2019. The graph below displays the number of hedge funds with bullish position in AGRO over the last 16 quarters. So, let’s see which hedge funds were among the top holders of the stock and which hedge funds were making big moves.


More specifically, Route One Investment Company was the largest shareholder of Adecoagro SA (NYSE:AGRO), with a stake worth $81.5 million reported as of the end of March. Trailing Route One Investment Company was EMS Capital, which amassed a stake valued at $80.5 million. D E Shaw, Point72 Asset Management, and Almitas Capital were also very fond of the stock, giving the stock large weights in their portfolios.

Seeing as Adecoagro SA (NYSE:AGRO) has faced bearish sentiment from the aggregate hedge fund industry, it’s safe to say that there were a few funds who were dropping their full holdings in the second quarter. At the top of the heap, Steve Cohen’s Point72 Asset Management cut the biggest position of the 750 funds tracked by Insider Monkey, totaling an estimated $6.9 million in stock. David Halpert’s fund, Prince Street Capital Management, also dropped its stock, about $1.7 million worth. These bearish behaviors are interesting, as total hedge fund interest fell by 5 funds in the second quarter.

Let’s now review hedge fund activity in other stocks similar to Adecoagro SA (NYSE:AGRO). We will take a look at Franklin Street Properties Corp. (NYSE:FSP), Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:SYBT), German American Bancorp., Inc. (NASDAQ:GABC), and Emerald Expositions Events, Inc. (NYSE:EEX). This group of stocks’ market valuations resemble AGRO’s market valuation.

Ticker No of HFs with positions Total Value of HF Positions (x1000) Change in HF Position
FSP 6 33455 -2
SYBT 6 13083 -1
GABC 7 18041 1
EEX 7 4514 1
Average 6.5 17273 -0.25

View table here if you experience formatting issues.

As you can see these stocks had an average of 6.5 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $17 million. That figure was $184 million in AGRO’s case. German American Bancorp., Inc. (NASDAQ:GABC) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Franklin Street Properties Corp. (NYSE:FSP) is the least popular one with only 6 bullish hedge fund positions. Compared to these stocks Adecoagro SA (NYSE:AGRO) is more popular among hedge funds. Our calculations showed that top 20 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 24.4% in 2019 through September 30th and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 4 percentage points. Unfortunately AGRO wasn’t nearly as popular as these 20 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on AGRO were disappointed as the stock returned -18.3% during the third quarter and underperformed the market. If you are interested in investing in large cap stocks with huge upside potential, you should check out the top 20 most popular stocks among hedge funds as many of these stocks already outperformed the market in Q3.

Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.