On August 7, Hawaiian Electric (NYSE:HE) reported second-quarter net income of $123.2 million, or $0.71 per share, numbers that look strong at first glance. Much of that gain traces back to a non-cash Maui wildfire settlement adjustment, not the underlying business, and core net income actually dropped once it’s stripped out. The quarter tells the story of a utility making real regulatory progress on wildfire recovery and grid investment while its day-to-day operating costs keep climbing.
Bull Case: Credit Upgrades And Cleared Hurdles
Hawaiian Electric has cleared several regulatory hurdles this year. In June, the Public Utilities Commission approved recovery of roughly $350 million in Wildfire Mitigation Plan spending, and the company now plans to finance that spending through securitization under Act 258 rather than the more limited Exceptional Project Recovery Mechanism, a move it says lowers the cost to customers.
The commission also accepted the company’s rate rebasing methodology in June, and Hawaiian Electric resubmitted its request last month seeking a total base rate increase of $170 million phased in over two years, with $125 million taking effect in 2027 if the commission issues an interim decision by December 18. On the generation side, the company submitted a request for proposals on July 17 ahead of the August 7 issuance date, seeking nearly 1,650 gigawatt-hours of renewable energy, one of the largest competitive procurements in state history. Credit agencies have taken notice, with S&P upgrading Hawaiian Electric one notch in July, following Moody’s upgrade in April.
Bear Case: Costs Are Outrunning Revenue
The cost side of the ledger tells a rougher story. Core net income and earnings per share fell to $22.5 million and $0.13 in the quarter, down from $35.4 million and $0.20 a year earlier, and utility core net income slipped to $32.6 million from $42.5 million. Higher interest expense from last September’s high-yield debt issuance is part of the drag, along with increased spending on vegetation management, generation overhauls, and inspection and maintenance. The company also lost a deferral it used last year for roughly $28 million in wildfire-related expenses, including insurance premiums, and it is now absorbing storm response costs from the severe flooding that hit Hawaii in February and March.
Management expects to hit the maximum penalty under its Fuel Cost Risk Sharing Mechanism this year and to book a loss under its performance incentive mechanisms. Regulators are also pushing back in places. On August 5, the commission told Hawaiian Electric it needs to demonstrate a clear need before it can proceed with a proposed request for up to 500 megawatts of additional firm generation capacity on Oahu.
What The Market Is Pricing In
Hedge fund ownership rose from 25 funds to 28 in the most recent quarter, a modest sign of accumulating interest. Short sellers remain heavily positioned against the stock, with short interest at 12.44% of the float, territory that reflects real skepticism. Yet the stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 11.85, as of August 17, a discount that suggests the market has not fully priced in the regulatory progress management laid out this quarter. That gap between rising fund interest, elevated short interest, and a still-cheap multiple is the tension defining the stock right now.
A Utility Still Finding Its Footing
Hawaiian Electric’s second quarter shows a company clearing real regulatory milestones, from securitization authority to a growing renewable pipeline, while absorbing costs that are rising faster than its core earnings. For the bull case to hold, the securitization financing and rate rebasing need to land as filed and finally catch the utility’s cost structure up to its spending.
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