Frontline Ltd. (NYSE:FRO) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

But I think initially, it’s obviously a bearish sign. It do contradict OPEC’s very, very bullish stance on demand. So, that’s maybe something one needs to dig a bit more into. But, so number one, you do — assuming demand is going to be the same, you need to source oil from elsewhere. But number two, also keep in mind that, as I mentioned, production is not necessarily exports, and we do see that the Middle Eastern exports are actually more correlated to the temperature in the Middle East over the summer when they do consume a lot for cooling rather than the stated kind of production quotas.

Omar Nokta: And I guess maybe it does feel perhaps that as time goes on, we’re going to see more of that non-OPEC production start to fill the gap. I guess, as you think about the 24 VLCCs coming on, obviously, you have those financed and you’ve been pretty vocal about not needing to raise any equity to fund the transaction, and kind of went over the liquidity earlier, Inger. I guess, any updated thoughts on the need or potential willingness to want to issue equity, even though your leverage is still at 52%. Any updated thoughts on perhaps wanting to tap into equity just to derisk the transaction?

Lars Barstad: Not really to quite understand. I believe we’re fairly vocal in this presentation, and Inger clearly stated that we have capacity in our existing or old Frontline to say, to use another word. We’re also kind of looking to see if we can divest certain assets to maintain our very, very modern fleet. So, I believe we have the same message as we did when we went public with the transaction, and we’ll just continue that.

Omar Nokta: Thank you. I just wanted to ask that. And then, a final one just on the dividend. Obviously, you have the — I think I may have asked you this last quarter or maybe last month when you held the call following the announcement of the deal, just in terms of the dividend, you’ve had this unofficial policy of perhaps paying out 80% of earnings, that was recently with the lower net debt gearing. How are you thinking about that dividend? Does that change percentage wise, once the deal’s complete and you’re up to a higher leverage, or are you still comfortable with, say, that 80% being a good threshold?

Lars Barstad: As you rightfully say, we don’t have a policy, but the expectation should be around 80%, and we’ll continue to do that, as long as the market allows us to do that. This is why we don’t really have a policy because we don’t want to be forced to pay out the dividend when it’s not kind of feasible from a financial perspective. So, this is basically at the discretion of our Board. But, we have a main shareholder who is more interested in dividends than you are, so I think you should expect that to continue going forward.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Now we’re going to take our next question, and it comes from the line of Greg Lewis from BTIG.

Greg Lewis: Lars, I guess I had a question around as we look out at potential pockets of oil production outside of OPEC, clearly there’s been some — Guyana has been a nice bright spot. I’m kind of curious as we look at the South America, what’s your outlook on volumes from that? And then, I guess, there’s been more recent headlines this week. I think it’s — they’re coming at us in a million directions about Venezuela potentially. I don’t know. They’re unhappy with what’s happening in Guyana and there’s talk of invasion of Guyana. I guess my question is, what is — how much crude is hitting the international market from Venezuela today. How much is coming from Guyana? And if there’s a disruption there, what segments of the tanker market are probably going to be most impacted by that?

Lars Barstad: Well, I believe the Venezuelan exports, and it obviously will be strongly advocated by the U.S. on relief on the sanctions. It’s basically because the U.S. on a refining industry or the crude slate, which is the word for that, do need these barrels. They can’t refine more shale, so they actually need this mix into the refineries. So kind of one would assume that most of this Venezuelan oil is then going short haul on Afra and potentially Suezmax into U.S. But, what we’ve seen just recently is that there’s a lot of VLCC cargoes being built up, and actually some of them are being are pointing towards India. So, I guess, the jury’s still out on Venezuela. Venezuela is — were exporting between 300,000 and 400,000 barrels per day prior to the sanctions getting lifted.