Frontline Ltd. (NYSE:FRO) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Inger Klemp: Yes. I guess, what we talked about earlier today was that you could probably assume that as much as 15 vessels will be delivered in the fourth quarter out of these 24. Let’s assume that one vessel is delivered every second day in December, then it will get to about 255 operating days in December for these vessels. So, as you say, you will have operating expenses, of course, because from the very first day you take delivery of a vessel that will start to accrue. You will also have interest expense on the loan draw-downs and you will also have depreciation on the vessels. So, that’s correct.

Operator: And the next question comes from the line of Amit Mehrotra from Deutsche Bank.

Chris Robertson: Hey. Good morning, good afternoon, Lars and Inger. This is Chris Robertsonon for Amit. Just first question, Inger, for you. On slide 6, talking about the drydocking expected for 4Q, how have drydocking days kind of trended recently? I know that they were pretty elevated during the COVID congestion times. But, are they around 30 days now per vessel, 35? Where does that sit?

Inger Klemp: Now for the assumption for these drydockings that we have in the fourth quarter, it’s about 20 to 25 days for each docking.

Chris Robertson: And then, Lars, maybe a market question for you. Turning to China. Chinese oil import demand has been pretty robust this year, I guess, despite some economic issues and the property market issues going on still. What are you seeing in terms of today of Chinese oil product demand domestically? And what are your expectations around export quotas coming into 2024?

Lars Barstad: Well, as you’re absolutely kind of right, and the economical headwinds that have kind of dominated the narrative around China hasn’t really been noticed on the crude oil import side. And incidentally, it’s actually the same case, if you look at LPG and coal and iron ore as well, that China is seemingly pretty healthy. I think over time here, China, oil and oil products have become more kind of a consumer good rather than an industrial good, potentially explaining some of this resilience. We’re also seeing that China did — or at least, it’s implicated that they built a lot of inventories, kind of as we proceeded into Q3, but which they’re apparently drawing on now. On the product export side, I think kind of how this winter will bear with us is going to be a key to that, because we did see that a little bit last year, that with the fairly mild winter in the northern hemisphere across the globe, you saw that China’s kind of ability to export or willingness to give export quotas on product was pretty good at the beginning of 2023.

So I think that the last question is on product and product quotas, it’s probably more a weather question than anything. On the import side, we saw them just recently increase, the import quotas of fuel oil, which is actually quite positive in light of kind of the fear of China to stop growing.

Operator: And the next question comes from the line of Omar Nokta from Jefferies.

Omar Nokta: Lars, I think, obviously, as this call has gone on, we’re starting to see headlines coming out that OPEC Plus have agreed on a cut. And it looks like we’re still waiting for the statement, but it appears 1 million barrels of incremental cut. Now we don’t know if that’s a cut or just a quota reduction. But just I guess in general, historically, there’s always been this close relationship with VLCCs especially that a cut is bad, a boost is good. That seems to have been challenged here over the past several quarters, I guess, and with your commentary in the presentation. But I guess, Lars, as you kind of think about it, how do you think that this market plays out here in the near-term, if indeed there’s 1 million barrels taken off the market? Obviously, it reads as a negative, but just big picture, what do you think this means for VLCCs and, say, the Suezmaxes, over the next few months?

Lars Barstad: No, I’m tempted to say it’s flat out positive, but you can’t really say that. I think kind of this notion of OPEC cuts and predominantly that happens, in and or around the Middle East. If you look at it in a very historical perspective, this was when the Middle East countries dominated crude oil exports in total. Now, the landscape has changed, U.S., South America, even the North Sea and West Africa, to some extent, it’s a big contributor. I think there is no doubt that the demand side is kind of East of the Middle East and East of Suez. And then, — and I’m not the only commentator that has kind of said this, but this is, in fact, great news for U.S. fracking and great news for U.S. production. But then, it will also then benefit the long haul trade of crude oil.