Data by market research firm FactSet showed that over the past decade, roughly 74–78% of companies on the benchmark S&P 500 typically beat analyst estimates on earnings per share in any given quarter. The average aggregate earnings surprise has historically been around 7–8% above estimates, indicating that while earnings beats are common, most are modest rather than exceptionally large. During unusually strong earnings seasons, the magnitude of surprises increases substantially. For example, in the first quarter of 2026, FactSet reported that 84% of S&P 500 companies exceeded EPS...
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