Billionaire Quants’ Two Sigma’s 10 Stock Picks with Huge Upside Potential

4. Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST)

Two Sigma Advisors Stake Value: $105,241,601

Upside Potential as of May 8: 40.16%

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 39

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST) is a financial technology company. The company uses AI to make lending smarter and more inclusive. Its platform offers personal loans, automotive retail and refinance loans, and home equity lines of credit.

Upstart’s (NASDAQ:UPST) Q1 2025 revenue surged to $213 million, up 67% year-over-year. The company originated 240,706 loans during the quarter (up 102% year-over-year), with total originations exceeding $2.1 billion. Adjusted EBITDA reached $42.6 million, compared to a loss of $20.3 million in Q1 2024, and the adjusted EBITDA margin increased to 20% from -16% in the previous year.

On May 6, 2025, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST) announced a $1.2 billion forward-flow commitment with Fortress Investment Group. The latter has agreed to purchase up to $1.2 billion of consumer loans originated on the Upstart platform through March 2026. Additionally, on April 30, 2025, Lake Trust Credit Union, which serves 200,000 members across Michigan with over $2.5 billion in assets, announced its partnership with Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) to offer personal loans to more consumers. Lake Trust began lending as a partner on the Upstart Referral Network in January 2025.

Despite these positive developments, Citi analysts recently reduced their price target for Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST) to $83 from $108, while maintaining a Buy rating. The revision, Citi notes, is based on the “uncertainties related to the macroeconomic environment in the second half of 2025 and the current risk-averse sentiment in the market.”