Arch Capital Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:ACGL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Marc Grandisson: I think we said a few things about the combined ratio. The 95% was meant as a target back in ’16, ’17 when interest rates were quite a bit lower, and it went down further. As you know, that meant that we needed to have a lower combined ratio targets, which we targeted over last two, three years, that’s where you see the impact to us. I think from our perspective, low 90s is still what — or high 80s is sort of what we’re still pushing for because within the interest rates, they may revert back and come down after a while in a year, year and half from now. So you don’t want to be rushing to recognize all the various interest rates, although we are currently — we are pricing into our business, but we tend to take a longer view like we do on the trend on our inflation. And we’re thinking the rates might come back down. So I think we would still target a lower 90s to high 80s to get the returns that we think we deserve.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Jamminder Bhullar with JPMorgan.

Jamminder Bhullar: First, I had a question on the reinsurance business. If you look at your premium growth, even excluding the sort of large transactions, onetime transactions, you mentioned the number is extremely strong and obviously, doesn’t have the impact of 1/1 renewals in it. So what’s really driving that and do you expect some of those factors that drove the strong growth to continue into ’23 as well?

Marc Grandisson: I mean the one thing that right from the get go, I think, you need to appreciate the quota share business is something that we might have written a deal in January 1 of ’22, and the premium gets written over the four quarters. So we’re benefiting from that, that’s showing up in each of the four quarters. If the underlying rate increases also from the ceding companies are higher than what we might have expected at the start that gets adjusted throughout the year. So a couple of factors were, basically, we’re just following effectively the fortunes of the companies. But still, I think our teams deserve a lot of credit for going after these opportunities, being responsive to the client needs, being — providing good capacity with good ratings.

Does that continue on in ’23? We think so. We think the market is there and the growth was not only in business, it’s pretty much in business. And property and properties a lot of attention in the last few weeks, but still, I mean all lines of business, other specialty, casualty, marine, aviation, remain — I think all lines are, I think, in a position to really keep growing at a good cliff in €˜23.

Jamminder Bhullar: And then just shifting on to MI. Your loss ratio is obviously very good, but I think the loss pick did pick up a little bit in the fourth quarter. So is that more sort of national driven or is it more regional to where you’re starting to see some maybe softening in the market in certain regions or states?

Francois Morin: Well, we’ve navigated through the regional differences in our pricing. So I think we have constructed our portfolio that we’re very happy with, stayed away from what we perceive to be the more dangerous areas and underpriced areas. So I think that’s kind of showing up in our performance over time. In terms of reserving, I’d say, two things. One, the delinquency rates are still very low. So it’s not like we’re really seeing pressure at this point in terms of the higher level of delinquencies being reported, and the loss ratio pick is really more a function of us being a bit more prudent. I think there’s a little bit of uncertainty with — whole prices, are they about to come down, does that create some potential pressure?

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