Arch Capital Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:ACGL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski with BMO.

Michael Zaremski: I’ll stick with the primary insurance segment, given I feel like most of the questions will probably be on reinsurance. The growth has been decelerating there a bit. Marc, we heard your prepared remarks, sounds like you’re still excited, but maybe you can kind of talk about what’s driving the deceleration, what are you guys seeing? I don’t know if it’s worth bifurcating between kind of E&S excess surplus lines versus non-E&S. I’m just curious if the discipline there is dissipating a bit more versus reinsurance?

Marc Grandisson: I think we’re just experiencing, in the fourth quarter, that will probably change in ’23, I think opportunities are going to resurface more broadly than we even had in the fourth quarter, right? I think it took a little bit to the market to digest in and to what it means for the overall market. I think another market, it’s clearly in the camp up making — doing what it needs to do to improve the return on the pricing on the property, which I think also you heard in other calls, I think will impact broader set of line business beyond the property exposure. But if we’re to go back, so if you look at the 70% growth, I mean 70% growth over, premium is about 3 times the size three, four years ago, we did have a lot of growth in the beginning of our market.

So as you get into the late stages, I think 70% could be equivalent to another 50% increase in 2021 or 2020, when we started to lean into the market. So I think this is a natural phenomenon that after a while, you have — now that you mined everything, but you really have pushed as hard as you could, and we’re still pushing hard. Even 70% to me is about 3 times the average growth in the premium in the industry, that tells me that we’re still seeing a lot of opportunities. But again, like I said, we’re later in the stage of the . And I think that we’ll see a rejuvenation, if you will, of that growth possibly because the insurance companies are going to have to increase, as we all know, their pricing. One is the property cap and the higher retention why they have more risk retaining.

And we’re participating like the other guys on the insurance market, so we expect market to sort of getting a second bite of the apple, if you will, of a hardening market.

Michael Zaremski: And as a follow-up, sticking with the primary insurance segment. So it sounds like the opportunities might fall within the property space, if I’m interpreting your comments correctly. And when we’re thinking about the segment’s combined ratio, I feel like looking at my older notes, it was kind of mid-90s. Was the goal — is that still what you’re thinking, or as time has been so good in terms of the market cycle that we should be thinking lower 90s is the more near term goal?

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