Arch Capital Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:ACGL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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We think we’re very aware of that, whether there’s a recession, et cetera. But we’re still very, very positive on the segments. It’s just a realization that this is maybe a likely riskier environment than we were in like a year or two years ago, and our reserves are going to reflect that.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS.

Brian Meredith: A couple of them here for me. First, Marc, Francois, you guys typically provide in your 10-Qs the one in 250 for the other regions well, Northeast and Gulf of Mexico, UK. I’m wondering if you could give — have those statistics so we can get a better sense of what type of growth you’re going to see at 1/1 renewals? And maybe focus also on Europe, because I know Europe was — you got a good operation there and a lot of opportunities there.

Francois Morin: I mean the ones we reported really a couple more regions. We don’t have — I don’t have those handy. I think the most of my — to Marc’s point, I think a lot of the growth that we saw, at least at 1/1, will come through in regions that were, I’d say, we were probably a little bit underweight in the past. So that’s going to show up in Q1 premium and for the rest of the year, but in terms of P&L, it really doesn’t have an impact.

Brian Meredith: And then second question. I’m just curious, Marc, if I take a look back — and I’m going to date myself a little bit here. If I look back at which your underlying kind of combined ratios looks like back in 2003, 2004 after the last hard market, you’re getting pretty close there in the reinsurance business. Are we getting to the point where we’re kind of seeing max margins in that business, maybe you get a little bit more in 2023, but how much more do you think you really get here?

Marc Grandisson: I don’t know the answer to that. I like the comparison to €˜02 or €˜03. I would actually like to compare probably more like a combination of €˜02, €˜03, maybe €˜04 in liability and maybe €˜06 or €˜07 on the property side. So I don’t know what that means. We haven’t blended growing the combined ratio that we had in this year, but that probably would be close to what we can do. I mean, look, there’s a lot of things that are different this time around. The interest rates are lower than they were before internationally. More specifically, we’re an international diversified reinsurance company. Hard to tell, but it’s certainly going in a way of getting above our long term ROE targets that’s for sure, and that’s really what, in the end, what really drives us, as you know.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

Yaron Kinar: My first question, just looking at the ROE profile of the company, clearly, there’s upwards momentum here. Can you maybe talk about, A, what the target would be and B, if you’d see it coming more from — or the expansion from here on coming more from NII or more from underwriting?

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