On August 6, 10x Genomics (NASDAQ:TXG) reported second-quarter revenue of $151 million, boosted by a $1.6 million settlement payment from Takara. Strip that out and revenue grew just 3% year-over-year to $149.4 million, a modest number next to the real headline of the quarter: a brand-new instrument platform called Atera, where booked orders have exceeded full-year planned shipments.
Bull Case: A New Machine Draws A Crowd
By the end of the second quarter, booked orders for Atera already exceeded the roughly 40 units 10x had planned to ship for all of 2026. Demand also showed up in Catalyst Research Services, the program that lets customers run samples on Atera in 10x’s own lab before committing to buy a unit. Away from Atera, the existing consumables business kept growing, up 7% overall, with spatial consumables climbing 16% on continued strength in the Xenium platform. During the quarter, 10x acquired Proteintech Genomics, adding single-cell protein panels that management says will let Atera measure proteins alongside gene expression from the same cell.
The balance sheet backed up the story. Cash and marketable securities rose to $552 million, up $105 million from a year earlier, and gross margin expanded to 74% from 72%. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to a range of $610 million to $630 million. New research partnerships with Cleveland Clinic and Lausanne University Hospital, aimed at finding biomarkers of treatment response in oncology, point to where 10x hopes this technology eventually leads: clinical diagnostics.
Bear Case: The Old Business Hits A Wall
The flip side of Atera’s launch showed up in the instrument line. Total instrument revenue fell 47% year over year, with Chromium instruments down 46% and spatial instruments down 48%, as customers held off on buying older spatial systems while waiting for the new platform. Management expects that pause to continue, guiding for a sequential revenue step down in the third quarter before a bigger jump in the fourth. Even though booked Atera orders already exceed the year’s full production plan, 10x kept its shipment target at about 40 units, weighted mostly toward the fourth quarter, a sign the company is still constrained on how fast it can build the machine.
Regionally, APAC revenue fell 19%, partly because customers in China had pulled purchases forward a year earlier ahead of anticipated tariffs. Operating expenses rose to $132.1 million from $95 million, though the comparison is skewed by a $40.7 million patent settlement gain booked in the prior year versus $3.4 million this year.
Wall Street Still Isn’t Convinced
The number of hedge funds holding 10x Genomics fell from 39 in the prior quarter to 35 in the most recent one, pointing to funds trimming rather than adding. Short interest sits at 17.59% of the float, a level that reflects a substantial bear camp betting against the stock. That combination suggests skepticism has grown even as the company touts its new platform.
A Bet On What Comes Next
10x Genomics is, in effect, running two businesses at once. One is a mature consumables franchise still growing steadily. The other is a brand-new instrument that customers want faster than the company can supply it. For the optimistic case to play out, Atera’s early order strength needs to convert into an actual production ramp that shows up in the fourth-quarter numbers.
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