10 Best Stocks to Buy According to Stanley Druckenmiller

In this article, we discuss the 10 best stocks to buy according to Stanley Druckenmiller.

Growth investors have been scrambling to shield their portfolios from risk as the Fed prepares to raise interest rates in a bid to tame inflation. These growth-heavy portfolios, like that of Stanley Druckenmiller of Duquesne Capital, are a by-product of the financial stability of the past decade and the strides that tech-led disruption has made at the marketplace during the time. Druckenmiller manages a small portfolio consisting of just 49 stocks with the top holdings concentrated in the technology and basic materials sectors. 

Latest 13F filings show that Druckenmiller, whose personal net worth is close to $7 billion, has been busy dumping high growth names from his portfolio to prepare for the interest rate hike. Overall, his fund sold out of 15 stocks between October and December, made additional purchases in 10, and reduced holdings in 12 equities. It also made new purchases in 15 stocks. The top ten holdings of the fund comprise 72% of the total portfolio. During the fourth quarter, the portfolio value of the fund dropped by around $250 million. 

Some of the top stocks in the portfolio of Duquesne Capital at the end of December 2021 included Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), among others discussed in detail below.

Our Methodology

The stocks were picked from the fourth quarter regulatory filings of Duquesne Capital. The hedge fund sentiment around each stock was calculated using the data of 867 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey. 

10 Best Stocks to Buy According to Stanley Druckenmiller

Best Stocks to Buy According to Stanley Druckenmiller

10. T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMUS)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 89  

T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMUS) provides mobile communication services. It is one of the top communications stocks on Wall Street. Among the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, Greenwich-based investment firm Viking Global is a leading shareholder in T-Mobile US, Inc. with 10.2 million shares worth more than $1.3 billion. 

T-Mobile US, Inc. has featured in the Duquesne portfolio since the second quarter of 2020. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, the fund owned 796,303 shares of T-Mobile US, Inc. worth $92 million, representing 3.34% of the portfolio. The fund decreased its stake in the company by 7% during the fourth quarter compared to filings for the third. 

Just like Alphabet Inc., Microsoft Corporation, and Amazon.com, Inc., T-Mobile US, Inc. is one of the stocks on the radar of elite investors.

9. Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 51

Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) is a California-based oil and gas firm. Since 2012, the firm has featured in the Duquesne portfolio for only two quarters. At the end of December 2021, the fund owned 824,440 shares of Chevron Corporation worth $96.7 million, representing 3.5% of the portfolio. 

Hedge funds have been loading up on Chevron Corporation stock as energy prices climb. At the end of the third quarter of 2021, 51 hedge funds in the database of Insider Monkey held stakes worth $4.4 billion in Chevron Corporation, up from 50 in the preceding quarter worth $4.2 billion. 

In its Q1 2021 investor letter, ClearBridge Investments highlighted a few stocks and Chevron Corporation was one of them. Here is what the fund said:

“While reducing in health care and consumer staples, we increased our exposure to high-quality names in economically sensitive areas of the market. We added to low-cost, high-quality energy names, (including) Chevron Corporation. We are positive on the company’s strong balance sheets, competitive positions and exposure to an economic recovery.”

8. Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 96

Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) provides online reservation services related to travel. Elite hedge funds hold large stakes in the company. At the end of the third quarter of 2021, 96 hedge funds in the database of Insider Monkey held stakes worth $8.4 billion in Booking Holdings Inc., compared to 100 in the previous quarter worth $6.9 billion.

Booking Holdings Inc. has featured in the Druckenmiller portfolio, with the exception of one quarter, since the second quarter of 2020. At the end of December 2021, Duquesne Capital owned 42,917 shares of Booking Holdings Inc. worth close to $103 million, representing 3.73% of the portfolio. Compared to filings for the third quarter, the fund decreased its stake in the company by 2% between October and December. 

In its Q2 2021 investor letter, Nelson Capital Management, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and Booking Holdings Inc. was one of them. Here is what the fund said: 

“In the consumer discretionary sector, we trimmed pandemic winners in favor of companies we believe will outperform in a recovery period. Pent-up travel demand is another investment theme we believe will flourish, prompting us to buy a position in Booking Holdings (tkr: BKNG, see Featured Equity).”

7. Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 58

Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) owns and runs an ecommerce platform for used cars. Druckenmiller has steadily built up a large stake in the company since the third quarter of 2020. At the end of December 2021, Duquesne Capital owned 522,127 shares of Carvana Co. worth $121 million, representing 4.38% of the portfolio. The fund increased its stake in the firm by 281% quarter-over-quarter during the fourth quarter. 

Carvana Co. has also attracted the interest of other hedge fund managers. At the end of the third quarter of 2021, 58 hedge funds in the database of Insider Monkey held stakes worth $8.3 billion in Carvana Co., compared to 63 in the preceding quarter worth $8.9 billion. 

In its Q1 2021 investor letter, Steel City Capital LP, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and Carvana Co. was one of them. Here is what the fund said:

“Carvana’s (CVNA) 4Q’20 results weren’t particularly great. EBITDA was negative ($70) million, a stark turnaround on a sequential basis from a first-ever EBITDA profit of $21 million in 3Q’20. The culprit was a steep drop off in retail unit GPU ($1,265 vs. $1,857) and wholesale unit GPU ($358 vs. $1,113) as some of the COVID-driven aberrations in the used car market began to abate.

The company’s presentation of EBITDA (calculated “bottom up”) is dubious, as it commingles non-operating items including mark-to-market changes in its retained securitization portfolio. With the exception of 1Q’20, when ABS markets were going haywire, this line item provided a tailwind throughout 2020, including a gain of $5 million in 4Q’20. Also on the non-operating self-help front, management released a reserve for vehicle service contract cancellations in 4Q’20, adding another $7 million to EBITDA, and boosting “Other” GPU by $96.

Putting it all together, I put operating EBITDA closer to negative ($82) million vs. the $70 million printed by the company. This is a larger loss than 4Q’19 (calculated on a similar operating basis) despite the company selling 43% more retail units y/y!

Management didn’t provide formal guidance for 2021, but did offer guardrails for how to think about the year. Retail unit growth is expected to accelerate from last year’s 37%, with total revenue tracking in-line with retail unit growth. Total revenue per retail unit was $22,885 last year, meaning the company thinks it can hold this metric relatively flat throughout the year. Management also noted it expects some softening in retail ASPs throughout the year (“I think the gains that we saw in ASP in the back half of the year, we expect to moderate a little bit in 20216 “), with the implication being “Other” revenue – including financing – will serve as an offset.

Why look at total revenue per retail unit? The company guides to total GPU, which itself is an apples-and-oranges mix of total gross profit divided by only retail units. As for total GPU, management called out expectations for “mid- $3,000s” in FY21. Putting the pieces together, $3,500 of total GPU divided by $22,885 of total revenue per retail unit implies gross margin of 15.3% for the year, roughly 100 bps of pickup vs. last year’s 14.2%.

On the EBITDA front, management guided to continuing cost leverage but still a “small EBITDA margin loss” in FY’21. Splitting the difference between last year’s negative 4.6% EBITDA margin and breakeven gives us something in the realm of a 2.5% EBITDA margin loss for FY’21. So, 200 bps of total improvement, 100 bps of which we know is coming from GPU margin. The other 100 bps, therefore, must come from SG&A.

Applying a negative 2.5% margin to $22,885 of total revenue per retail unit implies about $575 of negative EBITDA per unit sold. This also allows us to back into implied cash SG&A per unit of $4,075, which is 17.8%, and 100 bps better than last year’s 18.8%.

The unknown variable is..” (read the entire letter here)

6. Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NYSE:PANW)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 73

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NYSE:PANW) provides cybersecurity solutions. It is one of the favorite cybersecurity stocks in the finance world. Among the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, London-based firm Generation Investment Management is a leading shareholder in Palo Alto Networks, Inc. with 1.6 million shares worth more than $773 million. 

Latest filings show that Duquesne Capital owned 229,500 shares of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021 worth $127 million, representing 4.63% of the portfolio. The fund decreased its stake in the firm by 43% during the fourth quarter compared to filings for the third quarter. 

In addition to Alphabet Inc., Microsoft Corporation, and Amazon.com, Inc., Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is one of the stocks that growth investors are buying. 

5. Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 242     

Amazon.com, Inc. is a diversified technology firm with core interests in ecommerce. It is one of the top stocks on Wall Street. Among the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, London-based investment firm Citadel Investment Group is a leading shareholder in Amazon.com, Inc. with 3.9 million shares worth more than $12.8 billion. 

Amazon.com, Inc. featured in the Duquesne Capital portfolio intermittently between the fourth quarter of 2010 and early 2017. Since then, Duquesne has held onto the stock. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, the fund owned 56,882 shares of Amazon.com, Inc. worth $189 million, representing 6.87% of the portfolio. The fund decreased its stake in the firm by 42% during the fourth quarter. 

In its Q1 2021 investor letter, Hayden Capital, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and Amazon.com, Inc. was one of them. Here is what the fund said: 

“Amazon (AMZN):We sold our last remaining stake in Amazon this quarter. Amazon was our longest-running investment holding, after having originally purchasing it at the inception of Hayden in 2014, at a price of ~$317.

I gave some details of how Amazon has progressed over these past 6.5 years in last year’s Q2 2020 letter, which partners can find here (LINK). The company has executed amazingly well over this tenure, with revenues up ~3.3x and since our initial purchase, and reported operating income up ~30x over that period.

Generally, I believe there are three reasons to sell an investment:1) we recognize our initial thesis is wrong (sell out as quick as possible), 2) we have a significantly higher returning opportunity to redeploy the capital into (sell-down to fund the new investment), or 3) the company is maturing and hitting the top part of it’s S-curve / business lifecycle, so the business has fewer places to reinvest its capital internally. As such, the future returns will likely be lower than the past. This investment thus becomes a “source of capital” in the future, as we fund earlier-stage investment opportunities.

In the case of Amazon, we decided to sell due to the third scenario. I’m sure Amazon will continue to generate value for shareholders and continue to keep pace with the broader technology sector. However, I’m just not confident it’s as attractive an investment as when we first invested.

With ~51% of US households having an Amazon Prime account (and with very low churn), each of these households continuing to increase their annual spend with Amazon, and few / no real competitors in sight, Amazon is a dominant force that will only continue to accrue value as consumers continue to move from offline to online purchases for their everyday needs. Likewise, the “cash-flow machine” of Amazon Web Services is in a similar position of strength, with AWS now having ~32% market share and continuing to grow at +30% y/y. Because of this, I think Amazon is probably one of the safest investments in the technology sector today.

So why did we decide to sell the investment then? Simply put, Amazon is …”(read the entire letter here)

4. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 66   

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) is an Arizona-based mining firm. Druckenmiller registered no new activity around the stock during the fourth quarter of 2021. The fund owns over 4.8 million shares of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. worth $201 million, representing 7.31% of the portfolio. 

Hedge funds are exceedingly bullish on Freeport-McMoRan Inc.. At the end of the third quarter of 2021, 66 hedge funds in the database of Insider Monkey held stakes worth $3.2 billion in Freeport-McMoRan Inc.. 

3. Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 250

Microsoft Corporation is a Washington-based technology company. Elite hedge funds hold large stakes in the firm. Among the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, Washington-based investment firm Fisher Asset Management is a leading shareholder in Microsoft Corporation  with 25 million shares worth more than $7.1 billion.

Latest filings show that Duquesne Capital owned 800,490 shares of Microsoft Corporation at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021 worth $269 million, representing 9.76% of the portfolio. The fund increased its stake in the firm by 3% between October and December. 

In its Q1 2021 investor letter, Polen Capital, an investment management firm, highlighted a few stocks and Microsoft Corporation was one of them. Here is what the fund said:

“We have written extensively about Microsoft in recent commentaries. It was our leading contributor last year and one of our largest weightings within the Portfolio. It continues to experience business momentum through several dominant, essential, and competitively advantaged businesses, like Office 365 and Azure. The markets it competes for are enormous, which gives the company the ability to compound at scale. In the past quarter alone, the company generated over $40 billion in revenue, representing a 17% growth rate. The inherent operating leverage in Microsoft’s business model continues and led to 34% earnings growth this past quarter. Despite the broad rotation we saw in the first quarter and Microsoft’s robust performance in 2020, we think its business fundamentals continue to exhibit strength, and the stock continues to reflect the fundamentals.”

2. Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 156 

Alphabet Inc. is a California-based technology firm. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, Duquesne Capital owned 94,414 shares of the company worth $273 million, representing 9.91% of the portfolio. The fund decreased its stake in the tech giant by 20% during the fourth quarter compared to filings for the third quarter. 

Major hedge funds have backed Alphabet Inc. stock to offer solid returns despite a broader lull around growth stocks. Among the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, London-based investment firm TCI Fund Management is a leading shareholder in Alphabet Inc. with 2.9 million shares worth more than $7.8 billion. 

In its Q1 2021 investor letter, Artisan Partners, an asset management firm, highlighted a few stocks and Alphabet Inc. was one of them. Here is what the fund said:

“Large-cap tech companies have been resilient through the pandemic—Alphabet among them. A top contributor, Alphabet’s Play Store and Google Cloud are in demand as businesses accelerate online activity which, along with strong YouTube user growth, is helping stabilize temporarily weaker search ad revenue trends. Through the lens of our disciplined bottom-up research process, we view Alphabet as one of the best businesses in the world, capable of expanding revenues at a rapid rate for years to come, with a bullet proof balance sheet and an average asking price. It’s a name we’ve owned since 2012 and for which we continue to have high hopes regarding future prospects.”

1. Coupang, Inc. (NYSE:CPNG)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 45     

Coupang, Inc. (NYSE:CPNG) is a South Korea-based ecommerce firm. Among the hedge funds being tracked by Insider Monkey, California-based investment firm Greenoaks Capital is a leading shareholder in Coupang, Inc. with 115 million shares worth more than $3.4 billion.  

Regulatory filings reveal that Duquesne Capital owned 17.7 million shares of Coupang, Inc. at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021 worth $521 million, representing 18.92% of the portfolio. The fund increased its stake in the firm by 15% between October and December. 

You can also take a peek at 10 Best Stocks to Buy According to Warren Buffett and 11 Biotech Stocks Popular On Reddit.

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This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.