The American Heart Association estimates that by 2030 the total cost of congestive heart failure (CHF) will increase 120% to $70 billion from $32 billion in 2015. Beyond age 40, the risk of acquiring CHF during your lifetime is 1 in 5, and with the baby boomers solidly above that threshold age, it’s no surprise that the occurrence and cost of CHF are on the rise. Re-hospitalization after initial diagnosis accounts for a major portion of the costs associated with CHF, primarily because current drugs either do little to treat the underlying condition, or themselves carry a risk of exacerbating the burden on an already taxed heart. The market for a first-in-class drug that cuts re-hospitalization events would be huge, and would surely be rewarded by Medicare as the cost of continued active intervention is diminished.
Despite the demand for novel CHF therapies, a huge void remains in the market for drugs that directly improve cardiac function without a risk of further strain on the heart. Cytokinetics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CYTK)‘ Omecamtiv Mecarbil (OM) seeks to fill this void. OM directly targets the contractile machinery of the heart to improve efficiency without the metabolic strains that are a risk of digoxin and other inotropic drugs. Clinical trials have been slow but rigorous. Several Phase I trials were conducted to identify effective IV and oral doses, and one trial enrolled 65 patients and showed safety and significant efficacy after short-term treatment. Phase IIa trials were successful in demonstrating efficacy in patients with stable HF, and safety in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy. The third and fourth Phase II trials, ATOMIC-HF (iv) and COSMIC-HF (oral), are wrapping up now, and serve to identify the dose that will be used in large scale Phase III trials. These results should be released soon, and should provide optimism for the success of late-stage trials.
And the best part: the trials are free! In 2006 Cytokinetics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CYTK) struck up a partnership with Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN), who in 2009 exercised its right to OM development and commercialization in exchange for $600 million in future milestone payments, as well as future royalties on commercial sales of OM. Amgen also reserves the option of increasing these royalties by providing some of the Phase III funding. This frees up Cytokinetics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CYTK) to spend its $74 million in cash on the development of its promising ALS drug, Tirasemtiv, as well as younger drugs breaking into its pipeline. Tirasemtiv is currently in Phase IIb trials after several successful Phase IIa trials, and holds potential for treatment of other skeletal muscle diseases in addition to ALS.
