On August 20, Royal Caribbean Group (NYSE:RCL) said it had completed a sale of $1.25 billion of notes that carry a 5.55% coupon and come due on January 20, 2034. The money is earmarked first for floating-rate term loans, with anything left over used to repay or refinance other debt, and the offering rode on a shelf registration filed on February 29, 2024. That sounds like routine upkeep. But next to an earnings beat and a flat third-quarter pricing outlook, the deal gives you a handy lens on where the company stands.
Wind Still In The Sails
Start with the debt itself. Swapping floating-rate borrowings for notes with a stated 5.550% coupon takes some interest-rate guesswork out of the picture, and the notes don’t mature until January 20, 2034. That matters because $2.7 billion comes due in 2027 and $3.4 billion in 2028. Against those bills, the company held $6.9 billion of liquidity as of June 30, and it added $250 million to its revolving credit line in July.
The business generating the cash is running well. On July 28, Royal Caribbean reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of $4.21 per share, ahead of its own guidance on stronger last-minute demand, lower costs, and better results from joint ventures. Management then raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $17.73 to $17.87, which implies 14% growth. It also kept returning cash to shareholders in the second quarter, through $404 million of dividends and $199 million of buybacks. Booking volumes are running above last year, and 2027 bookings are tracking ahead of past years, even on routes that geopolitical events hit in 2026.
Where The Water Gets Choppy
Beat or not, that $4.21 is still below the $4.38 from the same quarter in 2025. Costs excluding fuel per passenger cruise day rose 4.4%, and the cost beat came largely from the timing of expenses. Then there is pricing, where the story gets less rosy. Third-quarter net yields are guided to roughly flat against 2025 while capacity grows 8.5%, so the expected 8% revenue growth comes from more capacity, not from better yields. Management also says prolonged geopolitical activity has dented bookings on select itineraries. It calls the hit modest, but it is now built into guidance.
The refinancing also doesn’t shrink the debt pile. New notes pay off old borrowings, so the total owed stays roughly where it was, and the company still expects net interest of $980 million to $990 million this year. Add roughly $4.7 billion of capital spending in 2026, mostly for new ships and destination projects, and it is clear this business needs a steady supply of capital. The April ship orders, Icon VI and Icon VII, extend that appetite, though their financing is already committed.
Who’s Buying, Who’s Betting Against
Royal Caribbean counted 56 hedge fund holders in the most recent quarter, up from 53 in the prior one, so big money is adding rather than leaving. Short sellers haven’t gone away. About 6.00% of the float is sold short, a real bear camp but far from a crowded trade. Meanwhile, the forward P/E sits at 12.12 as of September 18, a low multiple that leaves little growth priced in. That looks especially modest next to management’s guidance for 14% adjusted earnings growth in 2026.
Steady Ship, Open Questions
The bond sale itself is a small story. The bigger question is whether Royal Caribbean can keep earnings climbing when third-quarter pricing is flat, and interest and shipbuilding bills remain heavy. The bulls need the healthy 2027 booking pace to turn into stronger pricing, while the bears are watching for the cost timing benefit to unwind and the geopolitical drag to spread. The refinancing tidies up the balance sheet, but it can’t provide proof on pricing.
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