On September 17, Freedom Broker downgraded Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE) from Buy to Hold and lowered its price target from $305 to $285. This update comes after the company issued Q3 2026 earnings guidance of $5.55 to $5.65 per diluted share.
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The midpoint of the guidance, at $5.60 per share, represents a 113% increase from the $2.63 per share reported in the third quarter of 2025. However, the outlook was well below Freedom Broker’s previous estimate of $7.54 per share and also came in below Street expectations, which ranged from $5.99 to $6.20 per share.
Freedom Broker analyst Vitaly Kononov pointed out that the market may have overreacted to the weaker guidance and expects the positive momentum seen in Nucor Corporation’s stock earlier in the year to continue. However, the lower-than-expected forecast has added pressure to the shares in the near term.
Steel Shipments Continue to Show Strength
The company’s performance has also shown signs of strength. In Q2 2026, Nucor Corporation set its second consecutive quarterly record for steel mill shipments as it shipped 7.1 million tons. Steel mill shipments increased 1% from the previous quarter. The company’s tube business also reached a new quarterly shipment record.
Nucor Corporation said investment across key sectors of the US economy, together with supportive federal trade policies, helped drive the record shipments. The company also continues to invest in expanding its capabilities and strengthening its position across a broad portfolio of steel and fabricated steel products in North America.
At the same time, the company has continued returning capital to shareholders as well. The company said it had returned approximately $1.36 billion to stockholders through share repurchases and dividend payments year-to-date as of September 17.
What the Numbers Say
Hedge fund interest in the stock increased during the second quarter. According to Insider Monkey‘s database, 62 hedge funds held Nucor Corporation at the end of the second quarter, up from 59 in the first quarter.
Short interest remained relatively low at 2.40% of the company’s float as of August 31, indicating limited bearish positioning in the stock.
Nucor Corporation also appears relatively inexpensive based on its forward valuation. The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11.51, giving the stock a relatively modest earnings multiple despite its strong year-to-date rally.
Despite Freedom Broker’s downgrade, analyst sentiment remains largely positive. Of the 19 analysts covering Nucor Corporation, 74% rate the stock a Buy. The median 12-month price target of $295 also implies nearly 19% upside from the stock’s current price as of September 18.
The weaker-than-expected Q3 guidance remains the main concern for investors. However, record steel mill shipments, continued capital returns, and ongoing investments provide good support to the broader picture, which still appears to be positive. The key question now is whether that shipment strength can translate into stronger earnings despite higher costs.
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