Space Exploration Technologies Corp.’s (NASDAQ:SPCX) decision to stop selling new Falcon 9 rideshare missions after 2028 creates the biggest opening in the medium-lift launch market in years; but Rocket Lab Corporation’s (NASDAQ:RKLB) Neutron seems built to fill that gap. Its backlog suggests demand is already there. But capturing that opportunity depends on Neutron delivering on an unproven timeline. The rocket has yet to fly, has already suffered a delay tied to a hardware failure, and Rocket Lab has described its year-end launch window with increasing caution each quarter.
Despite the Falcon 9 news, SpaceX remains a top AI stock, as long as investors are wary of the one red-flag we pointed out in our previous coverage of the stock.
Falcon 9’s Exit Creates an Opening for Rocket Lab
SpaceX has stopped selling new Falcon 9 rideshare missions, leaving some customers unable to secure flights beyond 2028 as the company shifts resources toward Starship. By contrast, Rocket Lab total backlog has grown to about $2.36 billion, including $940.2 million in launch services, while its launch backlog exceeds 90 missions. At least seven Neutron-specific launches for confidential commercial customers are already booked through 2029, leading CEO Peter Beck to say Neutron demand is not something he “sits awake at night worrying about.” Neutron is designed for the same medium-lift segment Falcon 9 dominates today, while Electron can absorb some of the short-term overflow as the world’s most frequently launched orbital small rocket.
Rocket Lab made our list of 10 stocks Reddit thinks could go to the moon—but nine stocks ranked ahead of it. See where RKLB landed and which names beat it.
The Catch: Neutron Still Has to Fly
A tank qualification failure that emerged unexpectedly in January 2026 has already delayed Neutron’s first launch to the fourth quarter of 2026. Rocket Lab has since acknowledged in its own filings that the launch window is narrowing. With the stock trading at roughly 57 times trailing revenue while Neutron has yet to fly, much of the expected demand may already be reflected in the valuation. Rival Stoke Space, which is targeting the same market gap, has also delayed its debut from 2025 to 2027. The delay highlights how frequently new-rocket schedules can slip.
Rocket Lab Is Priced for a Smooth Neutron Launch
Rocket Lab’s valuation suggests the market is already paying for a smooth Neutron ramp. The forward GAAP P/E isn’t meaningful since the company is still loss-making. Its forward Price-to-sales ratio of 43.53x sits about 50% above its 5-year average of 29.03x, a steep premium to its historical norms. The EPS outlook shows why. Losses are expected to narrow in 2026, while 2028 estimates likely assume Neutron is flying regularly by the time the Falcon 9 rideshare gap opens. Those 2028 estimates likely assume Neutron is flying regularly by then, so another delay could push them back. The balance sheet is a clear strength. Rocket Lab holds $2.30 billion in cash against just $133.69 million in debt. In my view, near-perfect execution is largely priced in already.
Rocket Lab saw a notable increase in hedge fund ownership, with the number of funds holding the stock rising from 43 at the end of Q1 2026 to 52 at the end of Q2 2026. Short interest reached 7.6% of float as of August 31, 2026, compared with 5.4% since the stock’s all-time high in May.
SpaceX has 119 hedge funds among its institutional holders, highlighting broad institutional interest. As of August 31, 2026, short interest accounted for 2.76% of float, a modest level that points to limited bearish positioning even as investors weigh whether Rocket Lab can capitalize on the Falcon 9 rideshare gap through Neutron.
The Falcon 9 opening and Neutron’s backlog are both real. However, Rocket Lab only captures the full benefit on its own timeline if Neutron reaches orbit reliably. The program’s recent delays leave that timeline far from settled.
READ NEXT: Shopify Opens Its Doors to Muse, Here’s Why Amazon Won’t, And NASA’s $946 Million SpaceX Award Extends Crew Dragon Through 2030, But Redundancy Remains Uncertain
Hedge Fund Resource Center