Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation (NYSE:ZWS) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

I mean, that’s really the game. So I think we feel pretty good about where we’re at, one year into the combination. And we’ll see what ’24 looks like when we get there. But taken as a whole, I think we feel pretty good about where we’re at.

Bryan Blair: Very helpful color. I will leave it there, guys. Thanks.

Operator: And the next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Hammond, with KeyBanc Capital Market, your line is open.

Jeffrey Hammond : Good morning, everyone. Just maybe on September, coming in below where maybe unpack that a little more, and where you’re seeing maybe some softness relative to what you thought?

Todd Adams: Yes, I think we look at it in a number of different ways, Jeff. But I think if I had to distill it down, it was probably more of the flow business, sort of the retrofit, replace, ordinary course, brake fix stuff, specifically in the Northwest, and a little bit across New England. And I think when we look at that, in aggregate it was probably $3 million to $5 million bucks, less than maybe what we had targeted heading into the quarter. And obviously, I think we had a view that we started to see resi deteriorate towards the end of last year, and we sort of had to assume that would begin to inflect up a little bit. It really hasn’t inflected up maybe to the degree that that we had we had thought given how sharply it fell last year.

But I would say that, I think taken as a whole none of these things are falling knives by any stretch of the imagination. And the reality is when you look at our Q4, we’re seeing 6% pro forma core organic growth. So maybe just a little bit less than what we were assuming, but taken as a whole still pretty good.

Jeffrey Hammond: Okay, that’s great color. Just on the puts and takes on the profit side into ’24 I guess, you feel pretty good about the ’25 incremental synergies, I think you got 10 to 15 million absences, kind of higher cost inventory. Other tailwinds or headwinds to think about as you think about that profit bridge, obviously, outside of what the growth might be?

Todd Adams: I think that, if you take a look at the overall model its highly variable, so we’re capturing all the benefit of lower input costs. We only have 2004 and 41 employees, so from a wage inflation perspective, we are well insulated. And so I think that we’re in a great place, we’ll capture any sort of deflation. We think that there is some modest price opportunities in certain categories, specifically in and around drinking water. And so no big moving parts in ’24 as it relates to our cost structure. I think that one that is emerging is, we see some significant supply chain opportunities that we’ll be working on over the course of ’24 that are probably worth in excess of $10 million into ’25. So I think that we’ve got a good path for margin expansion in ’24. And we’ve got some follow on that gives us a little more tailwind into ’25. So, nothing unusual in terms of tailwinds or headwinds beyond what we’ve talked about.

Jeffrey Hammond: Okay, last one, cash flow has been great. I know, it was supply chain kind of working capital was a big use, it’s kind of through that supply chain tightness, and it seems to be coming back in balance. But I’m just wondering, kind of where you think working capital is in terms of quote normal, and whether you see that as another big tailwind into ’24 back to neutral.