Xponential Fitness, Inc. (NYSE:XPOF) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

John Meloun: Yeah. I mean, visitation has been very consistent. We have — you do see in Q2 a slight falloff because people kind of focus on travel and probably when kids are out of school there’s more of that going on. But as you ramp into kind of Q4, you get to September, October, you see the visitation and utilization start going back up. So there is seasonality in Q3 from a visitation perspective because people are distracted with vacationing. But Q4 — and actually Q4 and Q1 are particularly strong quarters for us as far as not only sales, but new members and utilization. As we look at October, visits are already up 5% off of the previous period. So that’s a really good sign and October is not even our strongest month, it’s November. So we’re really excited with where the quarter is heading as we close out the year.

Jeff Van Sinderen: Okay. Great. And I think you said 216 or so licenses sold. Just wondering if you could share the composition of licenses sold. I know you don’t usually break that out.

John Meloun: Yeah, I have that for you. Club Pilates, — so of the 216 Club Pilates was 123, still remains a really strong brand as far as sales. StretchLab we had 23, BFT was 48. We had seven Rumbles and eight YogaSix, and the balance of the brands make up the other seven. And of that, 170 were domestic but 46% international. So about an 80-20.

Jeff Van Sinderen: Okay. Thanks very much for taking my questions.

John Meloun: Yeah.

Operator: The next question comes from Joe Altobello from Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Joe Altobello : Thanks. Hey, guys. Good afternoon. First question maybe for you, Anthony, on M&A. You talked recently about adding at least maybe one additional brand this year. Is that still the expectation? And what sort of acquisitions are you looking at this point?

Anthony Geisler: Yeah, Joe, thanks for the question. Yeah. No, we are still working on that. I had talked about — a few weeks ago and talked about saying we get something done this year and I’m still confident in making that happen. So we’ve kind of taken targets down from a wide range down to a narrow range, and then we’re completing off on that narrow range. So we’re still the same answer as before, but we are working through the same stuff. So still the cash out of the company. We’re not issuing stock. We’re not taking on new debt. And we’ll be buying something with a lot of growth opportunity, something that we’re not currently in the space of and something in that 1,500, 2,000 square foot retail box type situation. So I can’t give you much more color than that without telling you exactly what I’m doing. But those are all the parameters.

Joe Altobello: Understood. Appreciate it. And maybe just a second question in terms of other service revenue, obviously, up pretty significantly. I think it sounds like a lot of that was attributable to transition studios, but the number of transitions studios seem to come down from Q2 to Q3. So help us understand the dynamics of that?

Anthony Geisler: Yeah. Going back to the answer I gave the — I guess you could say the slope of the ramp down of those is kind of what drove that. We had expected — it’s not a linear slope to the bottom. It is as fast as we could move. So we did have Sitios on [ph] a little bit longer in the third quarter than we had anticipated. So when you think about other service revenue, there was about $8 million of revenue in the other service revenue line attributed to the studios and again, they came down later. So the KPI came off, but the revenue was there longer. As you kind of roll into Q4, there’s still — they’ll probably be somewhere between what was — we did about $4.4 million in Q1 to $6.2 million in Q2. So I think Q4 will be in that range as far as the revenue, the studios will generate as we ramp them down.

So you will see a decline on that specific portion of the other service revenue. But keep in mind, in the fourth quarter, we had the benefit of the franchisee convention where we generate sponsorship rebates from our vendors. So that will offset and keep the other service revenue line relatively flat to where we were in Q3. So we are ramping down, we do anticipate getting to a really low number by the end of the year from an annualized standpoint, but the fourth quarter still will be probably sitting between where Q1 and Q2 was.

Joe Altobello: Okay. Got it. Thank you.

Operator: The next question comes from Korinne Wolfmeyer with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Korinne Wolfmeyer : Hey. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. My first one is, I think, John, maybe you touched on October same-store sales trends of being about 15%. As you laid out your guide for the remainder of the year, can you touch on what kind of same-store sales growth you’re anticipating for the next couple of quarters? I mean, what kind of deceleration, if any, are you — or the next couple of months, what kind of deceleration are you expecting into November and December, if any? Thanks.

John Meloun: Yeah. So always — this is always a good battle between me and Anthony. He keeps continuing to beat me on expectations here. But the fourth quarter, I think you’re going to still see mid-teens kind of level for same-store sales. I’m still a believer that over time as we continue to ramp, the same-store sales will normalize to the mid to high single digits. Again, I’ve been very conservative on that statement and been wrong in the right direction, I guess, every time. But I do think, as you roll into early 2024 and fast forward to Q4, you’ll see it ramp down to mid- to low teens down to the mid to high single digits by the end of next year. That’s the way I’m kind of viewing the business. But again, I’m trying to predict how members will react in a post-COVID world versus a pre-COVID world.

That would — the mid- to high single digits was the pre-COVID world. So I’m assuming it gets back to that. But I’ve been proven wrong every quarter since the pandemic has been over. So — but my forecast and outlook assumes a conservative mid to high single digits by the end of 2024.

Korinne Wolfmeyer: Got it. Super helpful. And then, just on the closed studios this quarter, I mean, it did seem a little bit heavier than we’ve seen in the past. And I know as you talk about having more studios, obviously, it’s going to — the closures are going to increase a little bit. But can you just add a little bit of color on what drove the bulk of those closures this quarter and how we should be thinking about closures heading into the early parts of 2024? Thanks.