On Mad Money, Jim Cramer highlighted the disconnect surrounding Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CDNS) on August 18, as he said:
Okay, right now, except for today, we have an incredible bull market in semiconductors and semiconductor capital equipment. But what about Cadence Design Systems? It’s a software company that helps design chips and other electronics that I have liked since probably 1989, okay? Here’s a stock that’s down more than 10% over the past 12 months. Victim of AI displacement worries… Doesn’t seem to matter that Cadence’s tools are used by customers like NVIDIA to create the chips at the heart of the data center.
This stock keeps getting lumped in with the software cohort and punished for it. Didn’t even matter when the company reported a very strong quarter at the end of July. If anyone actually bothered to listen to management over the past year, they’d know that AI is in fact a major tailwind for Cadence. They helped design the chip, for heaven’s sake. This is serious technology that can’t be vibe coded out of existence… I was struck by how such an amazing company could have such an underperforming stock, up just over 1% year-to-date, despite putting up some very strong numbers. Cadence is indispensable in the modern-day semiconductor food chain. You can’t design complex chips without their software.
So why isn’t its stock doing better?… It’s because every single analyst is terrified that an AI agent spawned by Anthropic or OpenAI is going to do… well, let’s just say better than what Cadence does. They can mimic it. They can beat it. Look, I get it. We keep hearing about how the machines will make us obsolete while they do all our work, right? Cadence is regarded as vulnerable because, in the end, it’s a software company, and the market has collectively decided that no software is safe from AI-fueled competition.
Validating the Fundamentals with Q2 Execution
That skepticism completely overlooks the company’s underlying operating momentum. Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CDNS) reported strong second-quarter revenue of $1.584 billion, representing a 24.2% increase year-over-year. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share came in at $2.11, beating consensus expectations, while non-GAAP operating margins reached 45.5%. Most importantly, total backlog climbed to a record $8.1 billion, signaling multi-year visibility across hyper-scale and semiconductor customer accounts.
Rather than being disrupted by AI, Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CDNS) is monetizing the shift through its specialized portfolio. Core EDA revenue grew 18% year-over-year, while IP revenue surged over 40%, supported by strategic multi-year collaborations with major hardware players like Intel and Samsung. Furthermore, early commercial traction for the company’s AI Super-Agent portfolio, including tools like ViraStack and ChipStack, has delivered significant productivity gains for design teams handling increasingly complex workloads. Due to these drivers, management raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to a range of $6.26 billion to $6.34 billion, with non-GAAP EPS projected between $8.05 and $8.15.
Bear Thesis
The bearish case does not require Cadence Design Systems, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:CDNS) operating fundamentals to deteriorate. Instead, the central risk is that the stock’s forward valuation already discounts a substantial portion of its expected earnings growth. At roughly 40x forward earnings in mid-August, investors are paying a premium for its future earnings power. The risk for shareholders is that even solid execution may not be enough if future earnings growth falls short of what the current valuation implies. This is relevant because Cadence’s investment case depends heavily on sustained growth in semiconductor design activity, AI-related workloads, and increasingly complex chips.
The bear case is that growth remains strong but gradually normalizes, which might cause investors to reassess how much they are willing to pay for each dollar of forward earnings. AI introduces another important risk. It could automate portions of the semiconductor-design workflow. If AI agents eventually allow customers to accomplish more design work with fewer engineering resources, the long-term growth rate of the company’s addressable market could be lower than investors currently expect. The market would then have to contend with both slower earnings growth and a lower appropriate forward multiple.
Lastly, the stock’s recent price action reinforces that valuation concern. On August 18, CDNS shares fell 2.15% to close at $316.52, roughly 24% below their June 2 52-week high of $416.69. It shows that investors have not yet rewarded the company’s improved earnings outlook with a sustained recovery in the share price.
Institutional Positioning and Short Interest
Insider Monkey tracking data indicates that 66 elite hedge funds held a stake in Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CDNS) in Q1, compared to 65 in the prior quarter. Among institutional holders tracked across more than 1,000 elite hedge funds, Alkeon Capital Management has remained a top shareholder over recent quarters with 1.6 million shares in Q1. Meanwhile, short interest stands at 2.23% of the public float. While market sentiment remains clouded by software disruption fears, the underlying business metrics suggest a disconnect between share price performance and operational reality. As long as physical semiconductor scaling demands rigorous verification, Cadence’s proprietary computational platform remains deeply entrenched in the hardware design ecosystem, leaving valuation multiples as the primary variable for investors to weigh against execution.
While we acknowledge the risk and potential of CDNS as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than CDNS and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
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