We continue our state-by-state analysis below. You can find our reasoning and predictions for the other states here.
22. Massachusetts
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 22.6 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 27.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 34.3 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 38.9 points
Trump: 118 – Biden:124
23. Michigan**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 4.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 0.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 8.3 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 2.6 points (This is another battleground state. Biden has the edge now, but Trump might be able to close the gap over the next 3 weeks)
Trump: 118 – Biden:140
24. Minnesota**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.1 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 1.5 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 8.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 1.5 points (This is another battleground state. Biden has the edge now, but Trump might be able to close the gap over the next 3 weeks)
Trump: 118 – Biden:150
25. Mississippi
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 15 points
Actual result: Trump won by 17.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 11.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 14.4 points
Trump: 124 – Biden:150
26. Missouri
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 11.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 18.6 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 8.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 16.3 points
Trump: 134 – Biden:150
27. Montana
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 15.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 20.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 10.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 15.2 points
Trump: 137 – Biden:150
28. Nebraska
Nebraska also splits the electoral votes by districts, but this won’t be a close race. Here are the stats for the entire state:
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 19.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 25 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 17.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 22.5 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:150
29. Nevada
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 0.2 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 2.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 7.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 9.4 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:156
30. New Hampshire
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 2.6 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 0.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 9.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 4.2 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:160
31. New Jersey
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 11.4 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 14.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 18.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 21.3 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:174
32. New Mexico
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.6 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 8.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 14.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 16.7 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:179
33. New York
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 19.2 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 22.5 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 29.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 32.4 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:208
34. North Carolina**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 0.0 points (not a typo)
Actual result: Trump won by 3.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 1.9 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.8 points (This is a battleground state, but we think Trump is likely to win NC).
Trump: 157 – Biden:208
35. North Dakota
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 23.5 points
Actual result: Trump won by 35.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 25.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 37.3 points
Trump: 160 – Biden:208
36. Ohio**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 1.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 8.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 0.5 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 5.7 points (Pollsters think Ohio is a battleground state. We disagree.)
Trump: 178 – Biden:208
37. Oklahoma
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 27.0 points
Actual result: Trump won by 36.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 26.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 35.8 points
Trump: 185 – Biden:208
38. Oregon
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 8.8 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 11 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 17.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 19.6 points
Trump: 185 – Biden:215
39. Pennsylvania**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 3.6 points
Actual result: Trump won by 0.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.3 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins/loses by 0.0 points (I can’t make a prediction regarding PA. Biden’s numbers improved significantly over the last couple of weeks. I think Trump will improve enough to make PA a true battleground state. I will make a final call at the end of the article).
Trump: 185 – Biden:215
40. Rhode Island
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 13.4 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 15.5 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 24.9 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 27.0 points
Trump: 185 – Biden:219
41. South Carolina
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 6.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 14.3 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 6.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 14.2 points
Trump: 194 – Biden:219
42. South Dakota
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 17.0 points
Actual result: Trump won by 29.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 32.5 points
Trump: 197 – Biden:219
43. Tennessee
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 13.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 26.0 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 16.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 29.1 points
Trump: 208 – Biden:219
44. Texas
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 9.6 points
Actual result: Trump won by 9.0 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 3.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 2.8 points (Texas won’t be a battleground state in this election, but it may be in the next one)
Trump: 244 – Biden:219
45. Utah
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 10.8 points
Actual result: Trump won by 18.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 16.5 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 23.8 points
Trump: 250 – Biden:219
46. Vermont
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 26.4 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 26.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 33.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 33.6 points
Trump: 250 – Biden:222
47. Virginia
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 4.9 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 5.3 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 13.0 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 13.4 points
Trump: 250 – Biden:235
48. Washington
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.3 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 15.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 25.9 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 29.3 points
Trump: 250 – Biden:243
49. West Virginia
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 27.2 points
Actual result: Trump won by 42.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 30.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 45.1 points
Trump: 255 – Biden:243
50. Wisconsin**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.0 points
Actual result: Trump won by 0.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 0.6 points (This is a battleground state. Right now Trump is slightly behind but he has 3 weeks to gain a small edge over Biden)
Trump: 255 – Biden:253
51. Wyoming
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 36.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 46.3 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 39.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 49 points
Trump: 258 – Biden:253
Conclusion
I haven’t made a call about Pennsylvania yet. So far the battleground states are Florida (Trump:29 votes), Michigan (Biden:16 votes), Minnesota (Biden:10 votes), North Carolina (Trump:15 votes), Ohio (Trump:18 votes), and Wisconsin (Biden:10 votes). I don’t think Ohio is really a battleground state. If Trump wins North Carolina (very likely), Florida (coin toss), and Pennsylvania (coin toss) he will win the election. Alternatively, Donald Trump can still win the election if he can deliver an upset victory in Michigan, and win Florida. A third way for Trump to win the election is by winning Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Florida. So, assuming that Trump wins Florida and North Carolina, his probability of winning the election is about 65%.
On the other hand if Trump loses Florida I don’t think he can win in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin or Minnesota (very unlikely). At this moment, I think Donald Trump has 33% chance of winning the election. That’s not nothing.
There is a huge factor that I haven’t talked about and didn’t quantify so far: mail in ballots. I didn’t do it because I have no idea how it is going to affect the election results. It may boost participation by democrat leaning voters and tilt the election in Biden’s favor. On the other hand, I believe a non trivial percentage of voters who use mail in ballots will not fill out these ballots correctly and their votes will be wasted. Think about all those ballots lacking signatures (or mismatching the signatures that are on file) and lacking ID cards for first-time voters. I believe the number of wasted votes will be at least 1 million (this is a very conservative estimate).
I don’t believe Joe Biden has an 85% chance of winning the election right now. I am certain that the outcome of this election is still extremely uncertain.
See also 10 biggest companies that support Trump and 11 easiest congressional seats to win in America.