Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE:WY) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So we do have our target to do $1 billion of timberland acquisitions here over the next few years. So that’s something we’re certainly intending to allocate a certain amount of our capital towards we’re being disciplined as we navigate that market that you referenced. But look, yes, as we look at share repurchase, certainly, that’s something that we’ve said. It’s a useful tool to return cash to shareholders in the right circumstances. And specifically, when our shares are trading at a meaningful discount. We’ve been quite active in that space. We’ve done $733 million against our $1 billion authorization that we announced a little over 2 years ago. So we’ll continue to be opportunistic there. But in summary, while that’s really an attractive lever right now, we are going to continue to weigh all those options and ultimately allocate our cash in the way that creates the most long-term value for shareholders.

Kurt Yinger: Got it. And I guess just kind of a follow-up, just making sure I understand. So would you kind of be willing to go some threshold above 100% of adjusted FAD in a given year kind of recognizing that you got to be cognizant of where debt levels are. But you would be willing to go above that 100% with kind of share repurchases, specifically if you felt like that kind of discount was widened us?

David Wold: Yes. So we do have the flexibility within our capital allocation framework for that. So any cash above and beyond the 75% to 80% that’s committed to be returned to shareholders, that’s available for growth, debt pay down or incremental share repurchase. So as always, we are going to evaluate all those options and ultimately allocate our cash in a way that creates the most long-term value, but I’ll also add that we’re mindful in some periods of choppiness. Those might provide significant value creation opportunities. So we will be thoughtful and disciplined as we evaluate all those avenues moving forward.

Kurt Yinger: Got it. Okay. Thanks for that. And then just my second one, in regards to the fire at your Japanese customers facility, is there a way to kind of quantify what impact you expect that’s going to have on kind of Japanese export volumes over the next couple of quarters?

Devin Stockfish: Sure. Yes, we are thinking it’s probably going to be in the neighborhood of 15% to 20% over the next couple of quarters. And then as 2024 moves through the — moves on, we’ll see that shrink down to probably around 10% impact as they move production to other facilities. But I would just note, we do have other Japanese customers, so we are working to reallocate some of that volume and then you can typically get a nice premium in the domestic market for those high-quality Japanese logs. And so we’ve obviously got plenty of domestic customers that we can move that volume to. So net-net, we wouldn’t anticipate a material impact to our margins from this.

Kurt Yinger: Okay. Well, appreciate the color guys, and good luck here in Q4.

Devin Stockfish: All right. Thank you.

David Wold: Thanks, Kurt.

Operator: Our next question is from Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

Anthony Pettinari: Good morning. So you’re expecting flattish quarter-over-quarter realizations in 4Q in the South. And I’m just — I guess, first question, is there any mix impact there? Or is that sort of like-for-like pricing. And then second, prices for southern logs have been kind of drifting lower for the past 4 or 5 quarters. Are you seeing any signs there that give you confidence in stabilization or be bottoming maybe cost curve support? Or is the visibility into end market demand and rates just does it make it too hard to kind of make a call there?

Devin Stockfish: Yes. In the South, it’s typically a little bit easier to predict what’s going to happen on realizations than it is in some other markets. The comparable really, the mix doesn’t change dramatically quarter-over-quarter. I think our delivered model and the customer mix that we’ve, the demand has stayed pretty stable for us. There’s still margin to be made on the lumber side. So the demand for sawlogs has remained pretty strong. And even on the fiber side, which certainly has drifted down over the course of the year as we’ve seen some softness in the pulp and paper markets. I don’t know that we are necessarily anticipating a strong upturn here in the near term, but I will know we are starting for the first time in quite some time to hear a little bit of optimism for many of our pulp and paper customers that a lot of the destocking in their end markets has run its course and they’re going to start rebuilding some inventory as we get deeper into the winter.

So we may have bottomed in terms of some demand there. Now there are some regional differences. I think there are portions of the Southeast coastal markets just because of some mills that have closed down, that may take a little longer to recover. But on balance, I think, all things considered comfortable that we’re going to see comparable realizations in Q4.

Anthony Pettinari: Okay. That’s very helpful. And then just with regards to the — we have seen a number of kraftliner [ph] mills that have gotten shut down in the South and I guess one in Washington State. Is that something I guess, that has a specific impact to Weyerhaeuser. I mean it sounds like it may have impact to some of your competitors. I’m just wondering what the potential impact is to you, if any?