Waste Connections, Inc. (NYSE:WCN) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Worthing Jackman: Sure, and you’re right, Kevin, there been some, what I would call more outsized transactions, companies with $50 million, $60 million, $80 million or $100 million type revenue profile. But you look, an average year for us is 15 transactions to 18 transactions that might be two to four new market entries between, $20 million and $40 million of revenue. And it might be 10 tuck-in or 12 tuck-in or kind of market expansion up acquisitions that could be as low as $1 million or $2 million or as high as, $5 million or $8 million. It’s just that the combination of those 15 transactions to 20 transactions typically has gotten us to an average of about $150 million right? It’s just when a, when we do have a year of 24 acquisitions with a good handful of them being, $50 plus million in revenue, that’s what really drives the number to $640 million.

If you look at the pipeline right now, I mean, it’s still what I would call middle of the fairway. You know, we’re $20 million to $40 million it’s considered a large transaction. And there’s a lot of fives and tens in there as well. There’s nothing that’s, you know, what I would call outsized, but we never say average. It’s early in the year, right? But no, the average profile of what we’re targeting is no different. It’s just sellers of great businesses pick the time to sell and it’s just, you’ve seen more people come to market or are finally after 20 years or 30 years of dialogue decide to say, Hey, it’s time to sell the transaction. Earlier this year, again, $35 million fully integrated franchise in the west coast again, right in the sweet spot of that $20 million to $40 million.

Kevin Chiang: Perfect. That’s super helpful. And maybe just a second one for me, just a clarification, you talked about the potential upside with the IRA just confirming it doesn’t sound like you’re assuming any of that in your, I guess in 2023 numbers or even your longer term kind of return profile on these investments in R&D. It sounds like that would be upside to the numbers you provided in your prepared remarks.

Worthing Jackman: That’s right. We’ve got an, again, an investment tax credit that we — that could apply to the plant we’re bringing online in the second half of this year. Mary Anne noted, it could be about $10 million of cash tax savings in the current year, and that could be higher than that, but let’s wait to see how this thing plays out. It’s probably — it might be the first ITC that’s applied for — clearly, it’s the first one for us to see how that process moves through. But that’s not in our number. Obviously, that would help on the free cash flow and obviously reduce the net invested basis in that plant. And again, with regards to eRINs, we have not assumed anything in our outlook as we wait to get that rule finalized.

Kevin Chiang: Perfect. Congrats on a very strong 2022 there.

Worthing Jackman: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question will be from Walter Spracklin, RBC.

Walter Spracklin: Thanks for the sensitivity on OCC. It’s a big challenge for analysts that have varying conservatism in different management teams estimates on some of these things to have that and normalize for it. And is it fair to say that although the — you said for — I think it was 10% is $10 million revenue, that’s also EBITDA as well? Presumably, that flows right to the bottom line, is that right?

Mary Anne Whitney: Yes, it’s fair to say that, as we said in the prepared remarks, very high flow through on both OCC and RINs. Yes.

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