Was The Smart Money Right About Dover Corporation (DOV)?

The latest 13F reporting period has come and gone, and Insider Monkey is again at the forefront when it comes to making use of this gold mine of data. We at Insider Monkey have plowed through 867 13F filings that hedge funds and well-known value investors are required to file by the SEC. The 13F filings show the funds’ and investors’ portfolio positions as of September 30th. Hedge funds’ consensus stock picks performed spectacularly over the last 3 years, but 2022 hasn’t been kind to hedge funds. In this article we look at how hedge funds traded Dover Corporation (NYSE:DOV) and determine whether the smart money was really smart about this stock.

Dover Corporation (NYSE:DOV) has experienced an increase in hedge fund interest in recent months. Dover Corporation (NYSE:DOV) was in 32 hedge funds’ portfolios at the end of September. The all time high for this statistic is 40. There were 29 hedge funds in our database with DOV positions at the end of the second quarter. Our calculations also showed that DOV isn’t among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds (click for Q3 rankings).

At Insider Monkey, we scour multiple sources to uncover the next great investment idea. For example, lithium prices have more than doubled over the past year, so we go through lists like the 10 best EV stocks to pick the next Tesla that will deliver a 10x return. Even though we recommend positions in only a tiny fraction of the companies we analyze, we check out as many stocks as we can. Keeping this in mind let’s review the fresh hedge fund action surrounding Dover Corporation (NYSE:DOV).

Phill Gross Adage Capital Phillip Gross

Phillip Gross of Adage Capital

Do Hedge Funds Think DOV Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?

At the end of the third quarter, a total of 32 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 10% from the previous quarter. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards DOV over the last 25 quarters. So, let’s review which hedge funds were among the top holders of the stock and which hedge funds were making big moves.

More specifically, AQR Capital Management was the largest shareholder of Dover Corporation (NYSE:DOV), with a stake worth $81.9 million reported as of the end of September. Trailing AQR Capital Management was Adage Capital Management, which amassed a stake valued at $38.7 million. Millennium Management, Arrowstreet Capital, and Scopus Asset Management were also very fond of the stock, becoming one of the largest hedge fund holders of the company. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Sciencast Management allocated the biggest weight to Dover Corporation (NYSE:DOV), around 0.7% of its 13F portfolio. Quantamental Technologies is also relatively very bullish on the stock, setting aside 0.56 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to DOV.

Consequently, key money managers have jumped into Dover Corporation (NYSE:DOV) headfirst. ExodusPoint Capital, managed by Michael Gelband, created the most outsized position in Dover Corporation (NYSE:DOV). ExodusPoint Capital had $21.8 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Paul Tudor Jones’s Tudor Investment Corp also made a $2.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new DOV positions are Qing Li’s Sciencast Management, Paul Tudor Jones’s Tudor Investment Corp, and Greg Eisner’s Engineers Gate Manager.

Let’s go over hedge fund activity in other stocks – not necessarily in the same industry as Dover Corporation (NYSE:DOV) but similarly valued. These stocks are Zillow Group Inc (NASDAQ:Z), Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:MPWR), Xylem Inc (NYSE:XYL), Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE:HRL), Imperial Oil Limited (NYSE:IMO), Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. (NYSE:BIO), and Qualtrics International Inc. (NASDAQ:XM). This group of stocks’ market valuations are closest to DOV’s market valuation.

Ticker No of HFs with positions Total Value of HF Positions (x1000) Change in HF Position
Z 67 4251493 -9
MPWR 28 799034 -6
XYL 22 821321 -1
HRL 29 476824 5
IMO 10 99009 -5
BIO 38 1442180 -3
XM 26 1694438 -11
Average 31.4 1369186 -4.3

View table here if you experience formatting issues.

As you can see these stocks had an average of 31.4 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1369 million. That figure was $351 million in DOV’s case. Zillow Group Inc (NASDAQ:Z) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Imperial Oil Limited (NYSE:IMO) is the least popular one with only 10 bullish hedge fund positions. Dover Corporation (NYSE:DOV) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for DOV is 51.3. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. Our calculations showed that top 5 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 29.6% in 2021 and still beat the market by 3.6 percentage points. Hedge funds were also right about betting on DOV as the stock returned 9.6% since the end of Q3 (through 1/31) and outperformed the market. Hedge funds were rewarded for their relative bullishness.

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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.