Viavi Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ:VIAV) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

In particular, we are expecting to see some reasonable spend in the cable deployment, and a network upgrade and I think the initial revenue and it’ll start flowing in the March quarter. So, in that respect, the MSOs are doing in moving forward with their network upgrades. I think the big service price in North America are still a bit anemic but in Europe and Asia, I mean, we are seeing a bit better environment. So obviously, it’s not as good as it was I’d say a year, year and a half ago. But it’s from where I’m sitting, it’s a better situation than it was a year ago where for six months it was crickets. Nobody was doing anything. So at least we have the dialogue and things are moving forward, and I think the initial shock for a lot of 11 production, the semi companies, module companies, system companies, they kind of took a pulled back, reassessed their budgets, their CapEx, and now they’re coming back.

And within the areas in a high speed optical and ethernet is going to be quite strong in the — we expect to be quite strong in the first half calendar year. The wireless, we expect it to start recovering and coming back. And on the service enablement, our software business, we actually feeling pretty good. We are getting very good traction for our new architecture and a very nice design win in some of the most challenging areas against truly who in the space. So, I think in that particular space, we think we’re going to pick up share in the coming years. So overall, where I’m sitting, it’s on the NSC side. I think the worst behind it is now we just need to determine how is it going to be kind of gradual recovery, a little bit stronger recovery in some areas, weaker in the others, it remains to be seen.

On the OSP side. We saw very strong demand on 3D sensing in the September quarter. I think it’s too early to tell how the December is going to come in. I think, our major customer is probably going to look at — see how well they’re selling their products. If the sales are very strong, particularly in Asia, we may see more upside to the December and March quarter. At this point, it’s too early to tell. And on the anti-counterfeiting, I think, between the inventory bills during COVID and tighter fiscal environment, I think the inventories are unwinding slower. So, we expect to see a weaker demand and as a greater level of under-utilization and some gross margin pressure in that business unit in the coming six months.

Operator: The next question comes from the line of Tim Savageaux with Northland Capital Market. You may proceed.

Timothy Savageaux: Quick question on the kind of outlook, you mentioned something about March being less seasonal, and I’m not sure how the order, the magnitude of some of the businesses, the lab businesses that you’re seeing growth in. Clearly, you’re going to have some headwinds seasonally on 3D sensing, and it sounds like on the currency side, but at this point, or you mean to talk about March being less seasonal? Could March be up given some of the dynamics that you’re seeing?

Oleg Khaykin: I think it’s a bit early till, I think in the NSC there’s a chance that March will be flat to up. I mean, as I said, we expect some pretty strong cable demand to come in March quarter. And we do think we are going to see some 11-production recovery. But I think it’s, at this point it’s too early to tell. But the mere fact that some of the normally you see quite a bit of orders being pulled in into December quarter, because of budget flash. We’re not seeing that there as a result, people just placing orders to when they need the product versus when they have the money to spend. And in that respect, we think, the general strength that we see in December, which results in a bit weaker March, I think is largely absent.

So, the March bookings are already in and there’s still obviously a lot of work to be done, but there is a good chance that March will be flat, maybe even slightly up on NSE side. On the OSP side, I think it will be, slightly down because that’s usually, the weaker quarter for 3D sensing and we continue to expect more anemic demand on anti-counterfeiting. But obviously, I have been surprised in the past. I mean, we don’t get much visibility from central banks around the world. And, I mean, at least our operating assumption right now is that, OSP business will be slightly down from the December quarter and the NSE business maybe conversely slightly up. So, net roughly flattish, March quarter is the early expectation. But I think it is too early to truly call it.

Timothy Savageaux: Understood. I appreciate the color. Following up on the network enablement side, and given some of the trends you have noted in in terms of service provider spending weakness. I am going to — it would seem to follow that, and I know you have broken this down from time to time over time about lab versus field split. But it would seem that you are more lab-heavy these days, given that field weakness. A, would you say that’s right? Can you give us kind of a current estimate of where that breakdown stands? And of that lab business how material is your 800-gig high speed optical stuff relative to that total.

Oleg Khaykin: So, I think in general, we have been — we used to be like significantly more present in the service provider. We have obviously grown our lab business a lot more in the last six years. So, I mean, while we are still not quite there, I would say, the field instruments is, let me just kind of do a quick math here. It is probably more like a 60-40 maybe 55-45. It is still about maybe, 60-40, 55-45 split between the field instruments being a little bit better, bigger, and lab being smaller. That’s a big change from about 70-30 that we had a few years back. The other thing as I mentioned earlier about how we think about March quarter. Some of the — when you look at our EPS range for this quarter, that assumes, a higher commission because our current booking velocity.

We are expecting much stronger bookings, in this quarter. So, we pay — or at least we reserve commissions in the quarter of bookings, and that obviously, as the bookings come in much stronger than the revenue, some of it carries over as the starting backlog into the next quarter that gives us a little bit more comfort with the March quarter. But that’s response to your question.

Operator: The next question comes from the line of Alexander Henderson with Needham. You may proceed.

Alexander Henderson: So, I was hoping, we could start off with a little bit of a sense of what the break is between 3D and non-3D OSP. I am assuming that, it is somewhere around $20 million, $21 million in the September quarter for 3D, is that in the ballpark?

Oleg Khaykin: It’s a little bit closer to $24 million.

Alexander Henderson: Normally that declines sequentially, if it’s a little stronger. What gives you the confidence that it’s not going to decline more sequentially?

Oleg Khaykin: So, we are expecting some decline into this quarter. But in the near term, I mean, looking at our current forecast, we are seeing revenue to be around maybe $3 million to $4 million down for the total OSP. And that’s largely coming out of the — some of it coming from the anti-counterfeiting and some of the other is coming out of the 3D sensing, but there’s other elements of 3D sensing market that are playing into it. We already one month into December quarter.

Alexander Henderson: Is there another piece of the business that’s kicking in other than the standard customer?