Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript April 27, 2023

Operator: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Vale’s Conference Call to discuss First Quarter 2023 Results. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. This call is being simultaneously translated to Portuguese. . As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, and the recording will be available on the company’s website at vale.com at the Investors link. This conference call is accompanied by a slide presentation also available at Investors link at the company’s website and is transmitted via Internet as well. The broadcasting via Internet, both the audio and the slide change has a few seconds delay in relation to the audio transmitted via phone.

Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are being made under the Safe Harbor of Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1996. Actual performance could differ materially from that anticipated in any forward-looking statements comments as a result of macroeconomic conditions, market risks, and other factors. With us today are Mr. Eduardo De Salles Bartolomeo, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Gustavo Pimenta, Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations; Mr. Marcello Spinelli, Executive Vice president of Iron Solutions; Mr. Carlos Medeiros, Executive Vice President of Operations; Ms. Deshnee Naidoo, Executive Vice President of Energy Transition Materials. First, Mr. Eduardo Bartolomeo will proceed with the presentation on Vale’s first quarter 2023 performance.

And after that, he will be available for questions and answers. It’s now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. Eduardo Bartolomeo. Sir, you may now begin.

Eduardo Bartolomeo: Thank you very much, good morning, everyone. I hope you are all doing well. We started 2023 with great confidence in delivering our goals for the year. In Iron Solutions, iron ore production was solid, especially at S11D, thanks to a better performance of our truckless system and the installation of new crushers in 2022. In addition, our pellet production increased by 20% year-on-year, with higher feed availability and improving asset reliability in our pelletizing plants. On iron ore sales, the gap to production was primarily due to weather restrictions in loading at our Northern port and a supply-chain rebalancing after strong sales in the fourth quarter of last year. Since production was not affected, we expect to offset this impact in the second half of the year.

In this sense, our average iron content and quality was slightly lower, impacted by the port restrictions and opportunistic sales of low-grade product, which add value to the company. In Energy Transition Metals, copper production grew over 18% year on year, supported by Salobo III start-up, and with sales up to 25%. Finished nickel production was impacted by the ongoing transitional period between the depletion of Ovoid mine and the full ramp-up of Voisey’s Bay. On a very high note, our Sudbury mines continue to deliver remarkable performance, with record ore production rates since 2017. Also, we continue to make progress on the EV supply chain, with two important milestones for Pomalaa and Morowali, in Indonesia, which I will cover later.

Moving on to sustainability, we are steadily making progress with our dam safety management. This year, we upgraded our dam safety management. This year, we upgraded the safety levels of two more dams, removing their emergency protocols. Our improvements in Health and Safety practice led to renewed perception by ESG rating providers. On that, Sustainalytics completed its annual review on Vale in March, with a substantial upgrade in our ESG risk rating. On top of that, our discipline in capital allocation remains pristine. We are walking the talk and returning value to shareholders. In March, we distributed $1.8 billion in dividends while completing 47% of the third buyback program launched since 2020. So, let’s see our performance in detail in the next slide, please.

We are well positioned to deliver the production guidance for iron ore. We already produced 4 million tons more than in the same period of last year, and we expect to continue with that steady performance as the seasonal challenges fade away. In the Northern System, asset availability increased at S11D, with lower non-scheduled maintenance and solid production output. The achievement aligns with our intensive efforts to standardize processes and ensure adherence to best operational practices. In the Southern and Southeastern Systems, the heavy rains did not prevent us from delivering a strong production, contrasting with what we experienced last year. The loading restrictions mentioned caused the production-to-sale gap and the lower average grade which are temporary, and we should be able to compensate it in the second half of the year.

In addition, we are close to obtaining the operating license for Torto Dam, since we had its emergency plan approved in March. The dam will support pellet quality and volume, as well as product mix and average price premium. Another project that is moving well is the commissioning of Gelado, which will produce high- quality pellet feed by reusing the tailings that have been deposited in the Gelado dam. In this context, we are confident that we will reach our volume guidance and average grade for the year 2023. Next slide, please. In Iron Solutions, tests in clients’ furnaces are confirming the benefits of iron ore briquettes. We shipped the first cargo for international tests in April. So far, 8 industrial tests and 6 furnaces are under execution, with another 9 tests expected this year.

Our first two industrial plants will startup this year in Tubarão. I believe we are facing unprecedented opportunities for segmentation and demand growth for high-quality. Concentration is key to a high-quality low-carbon supply, reason why we signed up for the development of Mega Hubs in the Middle East and launched the green briquette. Therefore, Vale is uniquely positioned to be the supplier of choice in that scenario. We combine volume, quality, innovative portfolio, and well-structure supply chain for a decarbonizing world. Next slide, please. In the Energy Transition Metals business, I call your attention to our copper production growth, up 18% year on year, which allowed for a sales growth of 25% year-on-year. This was mainly the result of Salobo III ramp-up and Sossego’s improved asset availability, benefiting from the extended SAG mill maintenance in 2022.

In Nickel, Sudbury delivered the highest production in the past 5 years, following another production record in the last quarter, due to the excellent performance of our Sudbury mines. As I mentioned before, the lower finished production for the quarter was expected, and was mainly due to the ongoing transitional period between the depletion of Ovoid mine and the production ramp-up of Voisey’s Bay. For the second quarter, we have planned maintenance for Voisey’s Bay and Long Harbour operations as well, which should impact Voisey’s Bay and Thompson production. Next slide, please. As I said, we are steadily ramping up Salobo III. Both lines are operating, which is an important milestone for the site. We expect to reach full capacity within 20 months, with a relevant contribution to production by the end of 2023.

Once at peak capacity, Salobo III will add 30 to 40 thousand tons of copper per year. As you can see in the picture, this is a beautiful set for a promising project and a natural hub for copper production in Brazil, with substantial value creation for shareholders and society. With all that, we are confident on both guidance for Copper and Nickel this year. Next slide, please. We continue to engage with clients and partners in the EV supply chain. We are setting the stage to pivot in Nickel. In that direction, together with our Chinese partner, PTVI signed a definitive agreement with global automaker Ford Motor Company for the Pomalaa HPAL project development in Indonesia. The three-party collaboration fosters conditions for a more sustainable nickel production in Indonesia.

We also launched the project construction in Morowali, in February. This an integrated nickel mining and processing plant powered by natural gas, with start-up expected in 2025. As you can see, we have unique assets, innovative technology, customer engagement, and a supply chain to be the supplier-of-choice for the EV revolution. With active listening and open dialogue, we have set the stage for the strong growth ahead of our Energy Transition Metals business. Moreover, we continue to make significant progress on several fronts, including on the minority sale, and today I am happy to announce that we have advanced on bringing Mark Cutifani as the Chairman of our newly formed Energy Transition Metals Board, starting July this year. Mark needs no introduction, and we are certain he will be a valuable partner as we bring our tier-one portfolio of assets to the next level, unlocking significant value to our shareholders.

Next. We are moving safely towards leadership in sustainable mining. That starts with reducing the risks associated with dams. Since 2022, our approach allowed 10 dams to be stated safe and stable by external independent reviewers. With that, those geotechnical structures had their emergency level removed. By August, we are on track to be adherent to the GISTM, the Global Industry Standard for Tailings Management for critical structures. That gives us confidence that we will be 100% compliant by 2025 to all other structures. With more robust safety practices, the ESG risk perception on Vale improved considerably. The company has been re-rated by important ESG risk raters, with Sustainalytics providing the latest grade improvement for our company.

That decision came with an assessment of critical controversy and improved practices in Health & Safety, putting Vale in the industry 1st quartile. We are seeking leadership in sustainable mining. For that, we continue to deliver on many of our public commitments, such as in Human Rights, Amazon Forest protection, and community relations. Finally, on Brumadinho reparation, we reached 59% of commitments delivered per the conditions and deadlines set by Integral Reparation Agreement. Next slide, please. There is one thing I make sure to emphasize every single time. We substantially de-risked and reshaped Vale. On the de-risking, we had strong deliveries in dam management and decharacterization, besides advancing with the Brumadinho Reparation.

On the reshaping, we simplified our business in a major way. We divested from more than 10 businesses in 5 different countries, tapping cash drains and allowing ourselves to laser-focus on our core business, on safety and on production stability. The last milestone, to finally say we completed the Reshaping Program, is the divestment from MRN. We moved a lot in building Vale of the future, a company that promotes sustainable mining, fosters low-carbon solutions, and remains disciplined in allocating capital. Now, I pass the floor to Gustavo, who will give you more detail about our financial results. I’ll get back at the end for our Q&A session. Thank you.

Gustavo Pimenta: Thanks, Eduardo, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with our EBITDA performance for the quarter. As you can see, we delivered a $3.7 billion proforma EBITDA in Q1, $2.7 billion lower than in Q1 2022. This decrease is mainly explained by $1.5 billion lower price realization for iron ore fines. On volumes, we had an impact of $574 million from lower sales of iron ore fines, which was down 5.5 million tons year-over-year, despite a 3.7 million tons production increase. This is a transitory effect due to loading restrictions at Ponta da Madeira Terminal during the rainy season and supply chain rebalancing after strong sales in Q4. We expect to offset this impact in the second half of the year, keeping the annual sales plan unchanged.

The $435 million increase in costs and expenses will be detailed later in my presentation. So back to Iron Ore price realization. Iron ore fines realized price was $108.6 per ton, 23% or $32.8 per ton lower when compared to Q1 2022, mainly due to the decline in benchmark price of $16.1 per ton. Our average premium also contributed to lower price realization as our average sales quality was impacted by the temporary shipment restrictions at Ponta da Madeira Port and the opportunistic sale of high silica products, as discounts for these products were low due to steelmakers negative margins. The pricing mechanism had a negative impact of $ 2.4 per ton on our final realized price. This is largely explained by the negative effect from realized lagged prices at $96 per ton which was partially offset by the better sales prices in the quarter as compared to the provisional prices accrued in Q4.

Moving to our cost performance in the next slide. As you can see, our C1 cash cost ex-third-party purchases increased to $23.6 per ton in the quarter. This is explained by three main factors. First, one-off events, which include profit sharing in Q1 and the anticipation of maintenance activities, taking advantage of the lower volumes in the first semester. Second, the volume mix and inventory effect. The lower production from our Northern System, where we have the lowest C1, together with higher third-party purchases, had a negative effect on volume mix and fixed cost dilution. We expect these transitory effects to be normalized in the year to go. The remaining impacts were related with the geological inflation in Serra Norte and higher fuel costs in our operations.

We remain confident in achieving our C1 guidance for the year of $20 to $21 per ton, mainly due to the production recovery in the Northern System and the roll out of our productivity program, with gains in asset reliability and procurement initiatives with suppliers. Moving to all-in cost in the next slide. As you can see at the bottom of the table, our EBITDA breakeven cost reached $58.2 per ton. Besides the C1 cash cost increase, which I just explained, there were 2 other drivers. First, our distribution cost, which increased by $1.5 per ton, mainly due to higher share of beneficiated products in third-party concentrators, improving returns and margins and second, lower market pellet premiums. As we reduce our C1 cost and improve the average quality of our portfolio, with higher production from Carajás and more pellet feed production in Minas Gerais, we expect our breakeven to improve in the year to go.

Now, turning to Energy Transition Metals Business, starting with copper all-in costs. There was a year-over-year decrease in cost of goods sold per ton due to higher fixed cost dilution, largely attributed to the improved operational performance at Sossego. This was offset by a decrease in our by-product revenue due to higher proportion of copper concentrate from Sossego. Also, benchmark treatment and refining charges have increased this year. All in all, our EBITDA breakeven excluding Hu’u reached $4.464 per ton, which should gradually reduce throughout the year as we continue to ramp up production at Salobo III. Now looking at nickel all-in costs, cost of goods sold ex-third party was impacted primarily by lower dilution of fixed costs and inflationary pressure, including higher fuel costs.

In addition, volumes from third-party feed increased year-on-year, as we had anticipated. Although this increases our costs, it is aimed at maximizing the utilization and performance of our downstream operations, especially as Voisey’s Bay open pit is depleting and we progress on the ramp up of the underground mine. Now moving to cash generation. As you can see, we delivered a 62% EBITDA-to-cash conversion in the quarter, compared to 19% in Q1’22. Free cash flow generation was positively impacted by working capital as we had a strong cash collection from Q4 sales, as we anticipated last quarter. This effect was partially offset by transitory inventory build-up and seasonal disbursements related to profit sharing in the first quarter. We also paid around $1.8 billion in dividends and repurchased almost $800 million in shares in Q1, aligned with our capital allocation strategy.

So let me talk more about our capital allocation strategy and more specifically about our buyback program. We are close to reaching 50% completion of our third buyback program, and we expect to conclude it in Q4. We continue to see the repurchase of our shares as one of the best ways to create long-term value for our shareholders. After the completion of the third buyback program, we will have repurchased almost 20% of the company’s outstanding shares. This means that for our shareholders with positions since the start of the program, without spending any additional dollar, their participation in future earnings would have increased by almost 25%. So, before opening up for questions, I would like to reinforce the key takeaways from today’s call.

As Eduardo mentioned, we are very encouraged with the leading indicators coming out of our key operational sites and the solid operational performance in Q1 only reinforces we are moving in the right direction. We are also focused on delivering value through accretive growth projects, such as Salobo III, levering on Vale’s unique endowment. On portfolio redesign, we are happy with the progress to-date and strongly believe the current portfolio of assets and the recently announced organization will position us to successfully deliver on our key strategic objectives. And finally, we remain highly committed to a disciplined capital allocation, as evidenced by our highly accretive buyback program. Now I would like to open the call for questions.

Thank you.

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Q&A Session

Operator: Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. . Our first question comes from Rodolfo Angele, JPMorgan Bank.

Rodolfo Angele: Good morning, everyone. My two questions are the following. First, on the operating side, we know that with lower volumes that costs will naturally trend higher. But I’ve been more and more asked by investors about the trend that we’ve been seeing particularly on n iron ore and also on the nickel business where costs did deteriorate substantially. So my question is, what can be done to kind of reverse this trend? If you could comment, what would the costs have been, if we didn’t have, especially on the iron ore the restocking that we saw? And how relevant are the new licenses over there to lower this? So, any color on the cost trends would be greatly appreciated. And my second question is more on the industry.

And now, Vale’s position itself. So we started to see after years of an extreme focus on shareholder returns, the industry is now moving back a little bit more into growth mode, especially through some M&A. Vale has just completed a divestment program, we’ve been discussing, also, the strategic move on the base metal side, with a potential partial sale of a stake there to a strategic shareholder as well. And my question is, should we expect the Vale also to join this new kind of trend in the industry? Should we see the base metals also as an opportunity to speed up growth eventually, not only through organic but also through M&A opportunities? Those are my questions. Thank you very much.

Eduardo Bartolomeo: Thanks Rodolfo, here’s Eduardo. I will let, Gustavo elaborate on the cost-related to dilution and growth for iron ore and nickel. I think you’re spot on, Vale is completely focused on is two core businesses. First iron ore, we are always looking for some opportunity, some of the also — some smart M&A that we can do in adjacent of our operating assets. In base metals, energy transition metals that we call now is this platform, we never hide it, that is almost three years that we’re talking about ring fencing it, creating the right drivers. As you see, today, our moves are substantially and effective. We just brought Jerome from Tesla to be independent board. Now we have the — hot say in English to happen is to have Mark, good friend and old friend that worked with us in the past, to lead the board of this new company.

And this new company is going to be a platform of growth. We have organic growth, we have an endowment that nobody has in the world, in the right jurisdiction, both Canada and Indonesia. We have to tackle execution issues as you know, as well, we’re going to consolidate, this industry is going to be consolidating. So we are going to have the right entity to do that. So yes, the answer is, we are going to grow. We are going to go organically. And we can go inorganically when we have the right entity. And that’s what we are building and we are truly on track on both the software as people, the hardware as the legal entity. And even the participation that you mentioned there we are advancing as well, with the 10% that most participation in the business.

I hope I have answered your question. But I think is a very exciting moment for the energy transition metals world for sure. But we’re going to do it with an extremely cautious and disciplined way as we always have been. And Gustavo, please could you elaborate on the question about costs?

Gustavo Pimenta: Rodolfo, I think everybody is facing cost increase in the sector. I think if we look at the last three years, pretty much everybody has increased it materially, they’re all to fund 50% to 100%. It’s not only Vale but our competitors. I mean, there’s a higher fuel costs impacting everybody in the space, label services. I think that applies to everybody. Now, I wouldn’t read too much into our Q1 cost numbers. And for few reasons. I think the major impact we faced was regarding the Ponta da Madeira restriction, the shipping restrictions that we had. If it wasn’t for that impact, our C1 would be probably $2 lower. So we should be normalizing the C1 in the second half of the year, the major leading indicator that I think we have to look at its production, and we were able to put $4 million up quarter-on-quarter compared to last year.

And the shipment, we do have flexibility in the system and to offset this in the second half. So I think I’ll lean when we bring this volume, especially Carajás, our cost should be benefited. There is also Torto, which as we’ve said before, it will help us with pellet feed almost 9 million tons, which will then lead to lower, better all links in terms of better premium. So we should be, we are very confident that we should be normalizing these figures in the second half of the year. And Nickel, there was a similar component there. We had more third-party feed in the first quarter of this year than we had last year. But we should be also compensating and having more own production in the second half of the year. And therefore we continue to point to the 13 kilotons as our previous guidance for nickel cost.

Operator: The next question is from Leonardo Correa, BTG Pactual.

Leonardo Correa: I have a couple of questions. And sorry for moving back to the question on costs from Rodolfo here. I suspect that this is going to be one of the big themes of this conference call. But it seems clear that Gustavo from what you’re saying that there’s a very big element of this cost performance, which is non-recurring and somewhat of a one-off. If we think of the breakeven costs, just for fines into China, the number moved up to $62 coming from about $52 in the fourth quarter. So this is a $10 per ton sequential increase, which I think obviously caught everyone by surprise. I mean, using your judgment and using all the other signal numbers that you guys have inside the company, what percentage of this or how much of this would you say is non-recurring?

I think this is super important, just so we have the right base to forecast going forward. This very particular important line. Just wanted to get a sense on how you see this line, how much of this $10 junk is non-recurring? You mentioned that the guidance, the C1 guidance for the year is still upheld, right at 20 to 21. So I just on the C1, I can assume you guys have like a $2 to $3 potential reduction in cost going forward. When I look at the breakdown for premiums, I mean, clearly the result was very weak, I think quarter on premium. So just wanted to hear you on how you see this line going forward and how much of that weak performance is non-recurring? The second question regarding production, and more specifically at the crown jewel of Vale, which has always been the case at Carajás.

Carajás has also been struggling for a while. And certainly there’s several issues which are exogenous and out of control, like licensing, like the case law in the region. So first of all, I mean, how are you see these the sessions? Has there been anything new with legislation to improve the situation and to allow Vale to operate more efficiently. But I just wanted to hear your sense on that. And if you can give us any color that you can on how you see production at Carajás is evolving and developing in 2024. Thank you very much.

Eduardo Bartolomeo: Okay, Leonarda. Gustavo is going to answer the cost, I’m going to go over the Carajás production.

Gustavo Pimenta: Leo, you’re right, I think the view on C1 is around $2 to $3, exact $2-ish in terms of transit or impact. Now, you understand well, I mean, the transitory impact and the quality also impacts our lien, it impacts premium, it impacts some of the beneficiation costs because we concentrated more presently in China in this quarter versus last quarter. So there’s probably a similar impact in C1 applying for the other line is that we have in the rolling, call it $6. I think a lot on the final or lien for the year, we will depend on how the premiums perform. They were indeed a little lower, but a lot to the mix. So if we resolve the mix, if we bring towards online in the second half of the year, if you bring Carajás, you should expect to see ourselves posting a better premium and therefore, have a lien substantially below what we had in the Q1. So with that, I’ll pass it over to Eduardo.