Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Angela Korch: Hi, Chris. We don’t really give out specific guidance on the skier visit forecast for the guidance. And so what I will just tell you though is you should think about, right, the pass sales growth, which is our best indicator right now of our expectations for this year. You’ve seen over time how that, right, has translated into kind of visitation growth. Last year, I would just call out, I think, just to point out what you’re quoting, right, does have some changes year-over-year with Seven Springs acquisition and the acquisition of Andermatt-Sedrun. So you’d want to normalize for those types of items. But generally, the ski industry has been relatively low growth in terms of the visitation. And I think where you’ve seen us really deliver for our guidance is you’ll see the revenue translation from our growth in ancillary and our growth in capture with our advanced commitment strategies.

Chris Woronka: Okay. That’s helpful. I had to try. Yeah, and then just kind of revisiting the — this is really more of a longer-term question, right, because you’ve covered your margin expectations for this upcoming year. But, on the employee housing front, there’s a lot of moving parts in some of your local markets in terms of housing. Has anything kind of changed since last year in terms of how you’re thinking about potentially trying to help folks get more — or find more available housing in future years? Thanks.

Kirsten Lynch: I would not say that there is a material change in our focus and that this is a priority for us. Affordable housing is a crisis in so many geographies as you know, and in our mountain community, continues to be challenging and a crisis in many places. It is not an easy problem to solve. We are committed to making investments. We made some great progress last year. We’ve also run into obstacles. And we continue to stay diligent and focused on investing in this. I would say, when you look at our staffing this past year, we did get fully staffed despite a tight labor market and despite the challenges of affordable housing. That does not mean that we’re going to let up our intense focus on continuing to make progress, but it’s also important to note that it is possible for us to get fully staffed as we work through these challenges in partnership with our communities, in partnership with other developers and partners, but I’d say, yeah, we’re in the same spot and suspect we will be for a while because it’s a significant challenge.

Chris Woronka: Okay, fair enough. Thanks, Kirsten.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question will come from Brandt Montour with Barclays. Your line is open.

Brandt Montour: Hey, good evening, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions. Nice pass results, by the way. My first question is housekeeping, and then I have another question. The first one is the $7 million employee investment you called out, I know we kind of talked about. I just want to make sure I understand that that’s not one time, right, since that is sort of the tail end of the $175 million for last year, that was also not one time, right? Is that the right way to think about it?

Kirsten Lynch: That’s correct, Brandt. That is — the employee investment impact in this year is the impact of the timing of when the employee investment was implemented last year. And so we’ve got two months of impact incrementally hitting this year and that investment is in our cost structure going forward.

Brandt Montour: Okay, perfect. And I think — I’m not going to ask you what Australia was because I think four or five people have asked that. I think the reason why everyone wants to know that is because they want to take that number and add it back on your guidance and say, this is the earnings power of the company in a stabilized basis. So, I’m going to ask it a slightly different way and say, if I look at your last year’s original guidance and I rebase it for FX and I make the other adjustments that you called out and then I look at the sort of midpoint of this year’s guidance with a — what I think is a fair adjustment for Australia, I get to sort of an even 5%, what I would think is a same store EBITDA growth number. And so I guess the question, is that what you think the growth profile of the business is, or do you think it’s better, or what do you say to that?

Angela Korch: Hi, Brant. So, yeah, I would just comment on a couple things there. So, yeah, the adjustments that we called out to last year on FX with the sale of the retail rental outlets, completely agree with how you’re thinking about that as it relates to adjustments from last year. And then the go-forward growth of the business, really there are the three things that we’re pointing to for Q1 that are, one being cost inflation, which I think you can estimate how much on our cost structure in Q1 that piece is. And then the rest of that is the demand piece. And it is, I think, a factor to normalize and to think about. Because last year, right in Australia at this time, as part of our guidance, we knew, right, we’d seen the strengths going through the Q4 and then into the Q1 when we issued the guidance last year.

And we saw it was very strong. There was some pent-up demand in Australia that we commented on and talked about right after the COVID restrictions. And we had a really favorable weather conditions in Australia in their prior winter season. And this year we’re seeing the opposite and some of that correcting. And that is a piece that I think is very different year-over-year in impacting our growth. And that’s why we’re calling out this acute impact. And then to a lesser extent, I think the North American demand patterns, right, we are seeing this shifting and behavior of — what you heard from a lot of other competitors, right, and a lot of leisure companies shifting to urban, international, and cruise type of alternative vacations over the summer.

Again, that is very different travel behavior than what we see in our winter customer and our winter base. And so that is just an impact that we’ve had that hit us in Q4, which you see in the results. And also, we’re just finding out that it’s continued into Q1. And we expect that to normalize over time. We don’t think that that’s a permanent shift in behavior, and that’s another piece that we expect to return back to normal.

Brandt Montour: Okay. Thanks for all that extra color, Angela.

Operator: Thank you. Our last question will come from Megan Alexander with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.