Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Angela Korch: Hi, Patrick. Yeah, we do not look for the exact drivers of all three pieces, I think. The point for giving out the Q1 guidance is just to also showcase, right, there are some just normal headwinds we have in Q1. The midpoint in total, the one piece we haven’t talked about is, where the midpoint is about $50 million off of prior year, right? There is an FX component which we’ve pulled out of the $46 million. And then in addition, right, cost inflation and the investment in wages. I would say Australia and North American demand, you can look to kind of some of the trends we were seeing in Q4 and continuation of some of those pieces. The other thing I would point you to, just for the full year margin, and I think this is just the important point of, right, like in the guidance in the 31%, right, the revenue flow-through on the fixed cost business, we are absorbing these cost pressures despite the Q1 headwinds.

Patrick Scholes: Okay, just one or two other questions here. Last year, between when you did the first half and unit update, you lost about 3 to 4 points of growth. And then on the most recent earnings call, you had sort of a high level noted, you expected a deceleration between the June, which with the numbers you gave in June and now, but we haven’t seen that. Is this to be taken as, hey, things are actually better than expected or maybe there’s something in the sales program this year versus last year that will sort of delay that deceleration? How do we think about that?

Kirsten Lynch: I think that I feel very good about where we are on pass sales right now, and we are guiding that they may moderate for the full year because it is pretty typical for our growth rates to moderate as we go through the sales cycle. And that guidance that we provided wasn’t specific to this September time period, but as it relates to the full year and what our expectations are for the full year. We are, as you know, constantly working to pull our guest decision-making earlier and earlier in the sales cycle, which can impact the sales that occur and the growth rates that occur later in the selling cycle. Also, as we move through the selling period, later in the selling period tends to be focused on more new pass holders making decisions versus our loyal renewing pass holders.

And so, there can be more variability in the forecasting around our new product sales, which we generally see those growth rates decline the later we get in that selling cycle. But nothing structurally that is concerning about our pass sales, actually feel like we’re in a great spot given we see incredibly strong loyalty and renewals and that’s really driving the growth where we are right now, growth across all the geographies and growth across all of the product segments.

Patrick Scholes: Okay. And then just one last — very high-level question here. How much conservatism do you think is baked into your earnings forecast? I know you call out here, sort of normal weather conditions, but I think you have such a geographic diverse spectrum of resorts here that, it doesn’t seem there’s ever anything normal. And I relate that to, say, the cruise lines. I cover the cruise lines. And they always bake in a pretty hefty degree of, in normal times, degree of conservatism. As they say, there’s always something in some markets that goes wrong and they actually expect that to happen. How much conservatism, if any, is in there? Because, it just seems like every year, if it’s not the Northeast, it’s Utah, if it’s not Utah, it’s Canada. How much conservatism for something, whether to happen? Because it will happen, it always happens. So, [your thoughts on it] (ph).

Kirsten Lynch: Yeah, we strive to put out a guidance and a forecast that is very balanced with a reasonable opportunity for upside and downside on it and really striking a balance. On the normal weather impact, I agree with you. There’s always something that happens and we factor that in. The pieces that are not assumed because we obviously can’t predict them is when it is something so abnormal such as what happened this past year where we were down to grass in January at some of our ski areas and that can — that we can’t predict and that we are not assuming in the forecast as we have no way to do that. But we do try to strike a real balance on the fact that there will always be some variability.

Patrick Scholes: Okay. Okay. Fair enough. That’s it for me. Thank you.

Kirsten Lynch: Thank you, Patrick.

Operator: Our next question will come from [indiscernible] with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Unidentified Analyst: Hey all, good afternoon and thank you for taking my question. I know you touched on this a little, but could we get some further color on how you’re thinking about labor outlook? Like, is there more pressure on cost per employee than the recent past?

Kirsten Lynch: I’m feeling very good about our labor situation and where we are in terms of wages. Last year, our — we made a big investment in our employees’ wages, benefits, affordable housing, leadership development. And where we are right now is we are ramping up staffing. It’s early, but we’re ramping up staffing for this season and feeling good about where we are in terms of retaining employees and attracting new highly qualified top talent frontline employees. And I think from a wage perspective, I feel good about our wages and our starting wages being competitive in order to attract the strong frontline talent that we need for this upcoming season. So that’s what we’ve assumed in the budget I feel good about and that we can deliver against it as it relates to staffing and where we are on our wages.

Unidentified Analyst: Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Kirsten Lynch: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question will come from Chris Woronka with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Chris Woronka: Hey, good afternoon everyone. Thanks for all the details so far. So I guess without asking for any cheat codes to the model, how are you guys thinking about the number of the increase in — presumed increase in skier visits for this upcoming season? I’m asking it relative to kind of — we kind of know where we are in season pass sales, we know what the price increase was, we add all that up and we think we get to a lift ticket revenue. I guess, as we think about ancillary, just trying to get a sense as to, you obviously had 12% growth last fiscal year. What — are you anticipating, is it something in the range of low single, mid-single, high single? Is there any way to get a sense? Thanks.