TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG): A Bear Case Theory

We came across a bearish thesis on TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) on Substack by Edwin Dorsey. In this article, we will summarize the bears’ thesis on TPVG. TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG)’s share was trading at $6.71 as of 23^rd May 2025. TPVG’s trailing and forward P/E were 7.22 and 5.61 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC (NYSE: TPVG) has shown a consistent decline in net asset value (NAV), raising concerns about the sustainability of its business model. Since Q4 2021, NAV has dropped from $14.01 to $8.61 by Q4 2024, reflecting a significant erosion in asset quality. This ongoing trend suggests structural issues within its lending practices, particularly its continued exposure to financially unstable, venture-stage companies. While the firm has attempted to rotate out of distressed loans, the newer additions to the portfolio appear to carry similar levels of risk, offering little improvement in overall credit quality.

The company remains heavily reliant on startups that are either operationally challenged or lack the financial strength to meet their obligations, making recovery rates uncertain and potentially leading to further write-downs. Despite expectations of stabilization, there has been no meaningful progress in reversing the decline in NAV or improving portfolio health.

Dividend sustainability is also in question, given the weakening income profile and increasing pressure on earnings. Without clear signs of a strategic shift or a credible path to portfolio improvement, TriplePoint’s long-term outlook remains concerning. The persistent deterioration in NAV, limited visibility into credit recovery, and continued exposure to weak borrowers all suggest a structurally fragile business. As a result, the stock may continue to underperform, and the risk/reward profile has become increasingly unfavorable for long-term investors.

For a deeper look into another stock in the Asset Management industry, be sure to check out our article on BlackRock, Inc. (BLK), wherein we summarized a bullish thesis by Kroker Equity Research on Substack.

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 7 hedge fund portfolios held TPVG at the end of the first quarter which was 9 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of TPVG as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than TPVG but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.