Trinseo PLC (NYSE:TSE) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

David Stasse : No, Frank, this is Dave. No, the savings from the restructuring actions, you’re right, $70 million to $90 million is the original range we gave and the amount is $75 million. So what we expect today to get out of that is $75 million. So the $100 million that Frank was referring to was in the slide. So is the sum of that $75 million plus the natural gas savings.

Frank Mitsch : Okay. It looks like it…

Frank Bozich : Frank, we’re getting some benefit from — we’re getting some partial benefit from some of these actions this year, right?

Frank Mitsch : Right. Okay. All right. So year-over-year…

Frank Bozich : So you can’t just — yes, there is a portion of it that we’re getting. For example, the corporate restructuring actions, those were in effect late in Q3. And so a portion of those we’re going to get — we’ve already gotten. So we’ll only get the year-over-year benefit as a tailwind next year and that’s what we’ve highlighted in that tail — that call-out box.

Frank Mitsch : All right. Very helpful. And then lastly, you mentioned that you’re seeing a slowing of destocking. And I was wondering if you might be able to provide some color in terms of the end markets where you might be seeing that, whether it be building and construction, specialty paper packaging or whatever. Any color there on where you’re seeing this slowing?

Frank Bozich : In the consumer electronics, we’re seeing slowing — we’re seeing some slowing in the CASE applications, in Latex Binders as well as in the — well, automotive has been very steady. So that supply chain has been pretty resilient. I’d say with — and also, we’ve seen a slowing in the white goods or consumer goods areas related to appliances, where we still see some destocking. Probably, the most pronounced destocking that’s still ongoing is in kitchen and bath-type applications for various technologies. It’s building and construction.

Operator: We’ll go next now to David Begleiter at Deutsche Bank.

David Begleiter : Frank, do you have an update on the styrenic sale?

Frank Bozich : So, David, we — no real update. We continue to field questions from parties that are interested, but nothing is imminent.

David Begleiter : Understood. And Dave, just on working capital, when volumes do come back to more normalized levels, how much rebuild do you think you’ll need in working capital?

David Stasse : Well, Dave, as I said in the prepared remarks, over 80% of the reduction this year is from days. So days of working capital that we’ve taken out — and we’ve taken that out — and we believe substantially all that is structural. We take now those days of working capital because of the systems and processes that we’ve implemented specifically around S&OP and in our new ERP system. So I think, look, prices — price out of that is probably 15% or less. I think when prices do rise, that will likely be indicative of recovering environment. So we probably see higher EBITDA in that as well. But the vast majority of it, the remainder is days of inventory and days of other working capital that we think we’ve structurally taken out and don’t think we need to add back.

Operator: The next now to Matthew Blair at TPH.

Matthew Blair : I was hoping you could help us a little bit on the EBITDA bridge from Q3 to Q4. I think midpoint EBITDA guidance only as Q4 moving up maybe about $5 million quarter-over-quarter. It seems like you would have some pretty considerable tailwinds from rolling off the feedstocks impact in Q3, $19 million, as well as it sounds like the nat gas headwind is effectively going to be about a $6 million tailwind. So is that the right way to think about it? And I guess the delta would be the increased seasonality as well as the benzene on the styrene margins?

Frank Bozich : Yes, I think that’s a good way to think about it. We’ll have some benefit as we outlined from styrene and from the actions we’ve taken and those will be somewhat muted in the results because of the — we expect extended customer shutdowns during the year-end.

David Stasse : And Matthew, just one other point. Look, Frank mentioned in his prepared remarks, but I think it’s important that everybody understands. So our earnings, you mentioned benzene, right? Benzene — the higher elevated benzene bringing pressure on styrene margins. And that is, in fact, happening. Now in the third quarter — or excuse me, the fourth quarter we’re seeing that in AmSty. AmSty has — is going to have a lower performance in Q4 due to styrene margins. But because we’re no longer a styrene producer, higher benzene and styrene margins do not impact our results like they used to. So I know that’s going to take some used to for us. But styrene margins really only affect us now in AmSty, not in our own results.

Frank Bozich : Maybe just to add one more — sorry, go ahead and ask your question.

Matthew Blair : Please go ahead, Frank.

Frank Bozich : No, the other thing I just do want to point out is that the styrene contracts that we’ve negotiated begin in January of next year. We’ve secured the needs we have for the remainder of the year, largely through spot purchases on the market. So the timing for the contracts to kick in is January of next year.

Matthew Blair : Got it. And then will feedstocks be — will that still be around for Q4? Will that be a zero? Or will there still be some residual like negative EBITDA flowing through for feedstocks in Q4?

David Stasse : It will be there in Q4, Matthew. We will still have a styrene reporting segment. It’s not going to reflect the production of styrene and internal sales to our internal businesses. It will just reflect purchases of styrene that we make and internal transfers of that. Yes, so I wouldn’t — I don’t expect it to be a — because of that, I don’t expect it to be a negative number in the fourth quarter.