Trex Company, Inc. (NYSE:TREX) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator: The next question comes from Jeffrey Stevenson of Loop Capital. Please go ahead.

Jeffrey Stevenson: Hi. Thanks for taking my questions today, and congrats on the strong results. Congrats on the strong results. So Bryan, can you talk about the current sentiment at your dealer and distributor partners? I’m just wondering if they become incrementally more optimistic of there — another strong sell-through demand quarter. Or does there remain some conservatism given concerns about the impact of higher interest rates and slowing existing home sales?

Bryan Fairbanks: Yes. What we’re hearing from the channel is that while there’s concern from consumers, those that have strong consumer brands are holding up better than other parts of the marketplace, which are more commodity based. So overall, much like my comments earlier in the call, they’re feeling more positive about the Trex business going into next year than they did going into 2023. And they want to ensure they have the right inventory on the ground to be able to support those consumers as we continue to see a tailwind from homeowners that are staying in their existing homes, that they’re upgrading those wood decks. We’ve talked in the past about there being 50 million to 60 million wood decks, and about half of those are either passed or at the point of needing replacement.

Jeffrey Stevenson: Okay. No, that’s very helpful. And my second question is if there’s an opportunity to become more aggressive with your share repurchase program after the recent market-driven pullback here?

Bryan Fairbanks: We operate our program to 10b5-1 filings. Those parameters are preset when the program is filed. We do have a continuing program for the shares, and I expect that would — it’s a continued important part of our capital allocation. Our top priority is our organic growth and then second would be share buyback.

Operator: Next question comes from Keith Hughes of SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Keith Hughes: Thank you. You’ve given us kind of a view for capital spending for ’23. If we look into ’24, will it be the same order of magnitude?

Bryan Fairbanks: We’ll provide additional color on that, but I do expect 2024 to be quite a significant year of capital spending as we really get into the heavy part of the build-out and the purchasing of the equipment for the decking building as well as potentially adding a warehouse onto that site as well, too, and most of that capital will be expanded within the course of the year.

Keith Hughes: And on the quarter was the revenue growth, was that all units? Or was there some price mix in the number?

Bryan Fairbanks: There was no price.

Operator: The next question comes from Trey Grooms of Stephens. Please go ahead.

Noah Merkousko: Hi. Good afternoon. This is Noah Murkowsko on for Trey. Thanks for taking my questions. First, do you anticipate the need to take any pricing in 2024?

Bryan Fairbanks: We haven’t made decisions on pricing. We would — if we were to take pricing, we would talk with the channel prior to talking with the investment community on that. We have not seen any significant upward move in our overall cost. There have been a few things here and there on some certain specific smaller product lines that we might consider along the way, but I wouldn’t expect it to be material.

Noah Merkousko: Got it. That makes sense. And then for my follow-up, is $60 million to $80 million still the right way to think about potential inventory build in 1Q ’24?

Bryan Fairbanks: I wouldn’t necessarily call it inventory build. I would expect the inventory build to be larger than that. The $60 million to $80 million specifically refers to those sales that would have otherwise occurred in December as part of our early buy. We — last year, we did over a four month time period from December through March. This year, we’ll do it over a 3-month time period, January through March.

Operator: The next question comes from Alex Rygiel of B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

Alexander Rygiel: Thanks, Brian, and very nice quarter here. Could you provide a bit more color on the increase in sales guidance relative to sell-through versus channel inventory rebounding?

Bryan Fairbanks: You talk specific for the fourth quarter?