Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMCI) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Rich Newitter with Truist Securities.

Richard Newitter: A couple for me. Maybe just thinking about the ’24 commentary and where you’re jumping off from 4Q, I’m getting to about 11% to 12% 4Q implied Lapiplasty procedure growth rate, about mid-single digit ASP growth, and call it something in that run rate to get to 250 to 300, so call it somewhere in the 70 to 100 surgeon adds. If I just apply that throughout 2024, I’m getting to about a 20% growth rate with about low-teens Lapiplasty growth, mid-single digit ASP growth. I guess, is that the right way to think of the business right now broad strokes or directionally? And do we think of the weighting of the year with SpeedPlate coming next year, is that going to be a slow ramp? And it’s really not until 3Q and 4Q that we see the contribution.

Mark Hair: Rich, great question. This is Mark. Let me try to respond to that. And if I’ve missed anything, maybe John can help fill in. So with regards to 2024 guidance, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we feel like we’re positioning ourselves for a really successful 2024 with our growing sales channel, all the new product launches, but we’re not going to provide specific guidance on 2024 right now, although we can talk about a couple things that you mentioned. You mentioned something about the surgeon adds and how we should be thinking about that. Again, in my prepared remarks, I was saying as a baseline, 250 to 300. We’ve already added over 300 year to date this year. So that’s 1 thing. And as we think about next year, we’ll have a much, much larger active surgeon base.

And so our growth can really come a lot from our existing surgeon base, and it’s not as reliant on adding the incremental surgeons. Now, of course, we will continue to look for and add those important incremental surgeons, but on a larger base, we’re going to make sure that all of our new products get into the hands of that existing customer surgeon base. I don’t know if I hit all the points there.

John Treace: Rich, John here. I think you were asking a little bit about when will SpeedPlate hit its stride or really start making an impact?

Richard Newitter: Yes, that’s one of the questions. The other 2, I do think it would be helpful just thinking about mid-single digit ASP increases, level set us on active surgeon adds. I guess that would imply that you’re looking at a low-teens kind of Lapiplasty procedure growth rate. Is that correct? And then, yes, how should we think of the ramp for SpeedPlate?

John Treace: Okay. And maybe I’ll answer them in reverse order if that’s okay because I usually go to Mark on forward-guide questions. But the SpeedPlate ramp, as we exit Q4, we’ll be getting into very good supply. And as we go through Q1, we’ll be at full stride within the quarter. So we’ll be able to satisfy all the customer demand. And that’s what’s got us really excited about how we’re going to exit this year and ramp next year because it’s a real blockbuster product for us. This is a big deal and it’s very meaningful both on blended ASP, attracting new customers, and aggregating additional foot-and-ankle procedures that are outside of Lapiplasty and Adductoplasty but don’t defocus our sales channel.

Mark Hair: And with regard to Lapiplasty growth in next year, we look forward to providing additional details and guidance in our fourth quarter call. So we’re just not giving too much there other than giving you an overview of some things to come.

Operator: Our next question comes to the line of Rick Wise with Stifel.

Rick Wise: You were absolutely right last quarter when you cautioned that you were concerned about seasonality and vacation times. But I wanted to make sure that I’m understanding how we’re starting the fourth quarter. We’re obviously a month and a week or so in. Are you seeing the same slower trends from July, August, September, now into November with little change? Is that the major driver of the $10 million midpoint cut? I’m just trying to understand how the pieces all fit together. And that’s making you more cautious. The only reason that I can’t believe it’s the 1 less selling day, you knew that before, and the salesforce has been expanded. If I remember correctly, SpeedPlate is delayed, but Micro-Lapiplasty and some of the other new products are, I think, in full launch this quarter. So I’m just trying to make sure I’m understanding what’s driving what and to what degree that the $10 million cut at the midpoint is conservatism. Sorry for the long question.

Mark Hair: Rick, this is Mark. And let me respond to a couple of those things. Just first, I think there’s a question about some of the other products that have been available. Micro-Lapiplasty is going to come in the fourth quarter, so it’s not been launched and that will utilize SpeedPlate. So that is to come. A couple of the things that I just wanted to mention, and it’s what I’ve said a little bit before is, we were cautioning about what we were seeing in the summer seasonality. It was much more pronounced than what we had expected. And we were surveying a lot of our surgeon customers, asking them, what are you seeing as far as your volumes, case count, and your patient demographic? And just as a reminder, we have a much more narrow, specific patient demographic than a lot of other companies.