Travel + Leisure Co. (NYSE:TNL) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So as Michael touched on, as we get up to 35%, 36% new owner mix. And if we decide to settle on their, that’s a headwind that we no longer have as far as the potential VPG pressure or the higher marketing costs.

Dany Asad: Got it. Thank you. And for my follow-up, as we keep driving tour flow, do you ever see kind of yourself running into any capacity limitations on tour growth? Or we’re still kind of a ways off from 2019 levels, but just kind of curious there’s any kind of like capacity issues that you can see?

Michael Brown: I don’t see the physical capacity issues. We have sufficient sales pace. People are the key to success in this industry, and we’re very focused on retaining and bringing in new talent. So I think physical capacity and human capacity are the most important along with the third leg of that stool is in today’s world data is key. So it’s one of the reasons that we love the relationship with Wyndham Hotels and are excited about their growth and their loyalty program as well as the reason we’re excited about the additions of Sports Illustrated and Accor is they bring new databases, untapped data basis to a certain degree and give us the ability to grow our marketing component. And if I could just swing back to add one comment to Mike Hug’s earlier on margins.

I think in a year like 2023, where we had challenges in our Travel and Membership segment, high margin and the rapid rise of interest rates, I just want to say I’m very proud of our team. Yes, we organically executed to our vacation ownership plans that we laid out at the beginning of 2023. And I think that was a great accomplishment, but also the overall margin of the business with some headwinds against high-margin business shows once again that our team, when faced with challenges finds a way to deliver against expectations and in the case of 2023 actually it improve our margins slightly.

Dany Asad: Thank you very much.

Michael Brown: Thanks, Dany.

Operator: Our next question is from Ian Zaffino with Oppenheimer & Company. Please proceed.

Isaac Sellhausen: Hi, good morning. This is Isaac Sellhausen on for Ian. Thanks for taking the questions. First just a follow-up on Travel and Membership. How should we think about the maybe top-line recovery of that business as we move through the year? What are the expectations, maybe, around members and exchange transaction growth? Should we still expect some headwinds on exchange transactions and then maybe modest growth in members?

Mike Hug: Yeah, good morning. This is Mike. Thanks for the question. When we look at the Travel and Membership business, on the exchange side, we do expect the exchange members to continue to grow. We are seeing across the industry continued new owner generation and increases in new owner generation, just like we’re doing in ’24 compared to ’23. So member count, we expect to continue to go up. The one challenge we have that we’ve talked about is most of that growth is coming in the clubs, which obviously have a lower propensity to exchange. So when we look at the expectations for exchange transactions, we do expect them to be down a little bit like we did in 2023, we’ll try to make up for that with some pricing. And then as it relates to the travel clubs, we do expect increase in transactions out of the Travel Cub.

So overall for this segment, you’ll see revenue growth in the mid-single digits and as we mentioned EBITDA growth will be in the low single digits. The reason for that difference is the revenue that comes on the Travel Club side of the business does come with a lower margin as compared to the RCI exchanges.

Isaac Sellhausen: Okay. Very helpful. And then just as a follow-up, you mentioned resort bookings were ahead of 2023 levels. I’m not sure how specific you can get, but maybe how far ahead are we? And then maybe you could touch on regions that are performing particularly well.

Michael Brown: I can. For the first half of the year, the two primary destinations are, where you would expect, Las Vegas and Orlando are leading the charge. We — I expect this year that you’ll see a return to U.S. travel. I think we all know that Europe was the hot market last year in Cruise. I think the second half of the year blending into the first part of this year remains hot. I’m not sure how they trail through the year. But our bookings are ahead 5% on room nights for the full year and — yes 5% for the full year.

Isaac Sellhausen: Okay, perfect. Thanks so much.

Michael Brown: Just one more quick thing to add to that is post-pandemic, there’s been a tendency for a longer length of stay. We’re seeing that longer length of stay continue, which really sort of validates this work from anywhere environment that continues to persist even into 2024 related to our owner bookings.

Operator: [Operator Instructions]. Our next question is a follow-up from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities. Please proceed.