TransAlta Corporation (NYSE:TAC) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

John Kousinioris: Yes, there may be, but I think at least the current way that we envision them is more in the latter part of the scenario that you articulated, where they would be more of, what I would call, traditional peakers, Mark, where they would be oriented towards stepping in rapidly when there is a reduction in supply coming from the renewable and providing reliability of the system that way but really benefiting from the energy price as it responds to kind of a tightness in the moment. Our work would show that if the renewables come in, both wind and solar, we may see periods where the supply stack shifts. I know, Todd carry, like, kind of in that 2,000 megawatts kind of on an hourly basis. So having something that was pretty extraordinary compared to what we normally would have seen in the province. So having somebody that’s fast response like that would be critical.

Mark Jarvi: And then coming back to the projection of about $115 million of EBITDA over the next five years from the Heartland assets. When you model that out in those assets, is that number you are arriving at just based on what’s optimal for maximizing profitability for those assets without impairing revenue potential across your fleet or the market? I guess, is it just that’s the most you think you can get out without harming your hydro assets, your coal-to-gas assets? Or at that price of $115, do you think there is potential how you’re assuming those might run that there is, call it, revenue synergies across your portfolio in terms of how you might optimize all your assets?

John Kousinioris: I mean, Todd, do you want to…

Todd Stack: Look, Mark, those assets have been operating for many years here in the market. And so our projections on the future are somewhat driven off of a similar operating mode that they have had in the past. And remember that half of the revenue — over the half of the revenue is contracted. So it is really on a standalone basis from the contracted revenue consistent with the way they have operated in the past and then adding on the synergies that we expect to get more from a head office operational cost basis.

John Kousinioris: Yes, we haven’t — we sort of we did the assessment primarily on a standalone basis, I would say, Mark. So to the extent that you were to look at sort of portfolio wide kind of analysis in the future on the assumption that the transaction takes place, that’s not something that would — that was a focus at the time that we did the acquisition.

Mark Jarvi: No, obviously, pricing is one dynamic in terms of the realized profit from the assets. But if you just thought about what you assumed to get to the 115, that would be sort of comparable how you think those assets have run over the last, say, four to six quarters. Just so I am trying to understand in terms of their function in the role. You are not envisaging the meeting dramatically different is what I am hearing in your assumptions to get to 115 [Multiple Speakers] Okay, I’ll leave it there. Thanks.

Operator: Your next question is from John Mould from TD Securities.

John Mould: Maybe just starting with scale in Alberta, you have added or you will be adding considerable scale in the province with Heartland. Just when you consider FID on additional renewables, at what point — and maybe it is not reasonable to hold all else equal on the terms, but at what point, you prefer to add developments outside development projects — outside of Alberta, rather than further increasing your exposure to that market. Is there kind of an upper limit in terms of percentage of your asset base or cash flows that you would like to see in that province or does it really just come down to returns more than anything else?

John Kousinioris: To be honest, John, and by the way, good morning, to be candid. I mean, it’s really a function of the opportunities that we see in any given particular time from our development portfolio and as you’ve seen with Harlan on an M&A basis. I would say, in terms of sort of allocation of capital going forward, when I think of our clean electricity growth plan, I think I’d say, Todd, we’re pretty comfortable with where we are now. I think, we have, John, our Pinnacle project, which is a peaker and we’ve got Tempest and we’ve got WaterCharger. Those are probably the key projects that we’re looking at in Alberta. We would love to be able to grow in the US. We would love to be able to grow more in Australia. And actually are really focused on landing that and expect to be able to move that forward.

So increasing the diversity of our cash flows, increasing the contractedness of our cash flows and by diversity, I mean, by customer and also by geographic footprint, is clearly something that we’re focused on. And I would’ve thought we’ve kind of had a bit of an Alberta moment is what I would say to put it that way over the last little bit. And I would expect it on a go forward basis, it’d be a little bit more balanced and probably geared a bit more to jurisdictions outside of Alberta rather than inside of Alberta with the kind of assets that we would be bringing in Alberta would be more oriented towards providing reliability in the province. So like Pinnacle with peaking, when I think of our pumped hydro in terms of providing storage and water charger, I think, it’s more in that vein, given the evolution of the market rather than more sort of, what I would call, conventional contracted renewables going forward, if that makes sense.

John Mould: And then maybe just moving to the US wind projects you’ve got under construction right now. Could you give us an update on how you’re thinking about the permanent financing for those projects and options for monetizing those PTCs once the projects are online, and what timeline you’re looking at for finalizing that funding decision?

Todd Stack: The market changes in the US that allow us to monetize PTCs on our own without a tax equity partner is very, very beneficial. We have been in discussions with a number of counterparties to lock in that revenue stream over a long term period, not just selling them on an annual basis. But our ability to monetize them really makes the need for tax equity partners to be significantly less. When I think about the financing going forward, look, we still have — our preference is always to have the units up and operating before we actually go out and seek financing, in particular project financing. But we do have a lot of corporate capacity and really not in any rush to go out and finance those assets. We currently have a bridge facility in place. We’re happy with that facility and we may look to extend that as well. So nothing urgent on that front.

John Mould: And maybe just one last one on your hedges. I think last quarter you had some disclosures on your 2025 hedging position. I don’t — apologies if I missed it, but I don’t think you’ve got any of this quarter. And I’m just wondering what you can tell us about how those hedges have maybe been updated over the last quarter and how you’re thinking about the market more over the midterm beyond the next 14 months?