In this article, we will discuss: Top 15 Commodity Producers With the Highest Upside Potential.
Commodity producer stocks are shares of publicly listed firms that produce, explore, or distribute commodities. These businesses are frequently interested in metals, mining, agriculture, and energy. Commodity producer stocks are chosen by investors to obtain exposure to both the equity and commodities markets, potentially profiting from heightened interest in either.
The commodity market is booming. According to a research report, the size of the global commodity services market was projected at $3.56 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.65% from 2025 to 2034, from $3.87 billion in 2025 to roughly $8.16 billion by 2034. Regionally, the commodity services industry is dominated by North America, while Asia Pacific is projected to grow at a quick pace.
However, the World Bank’s April 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook projects that global commodity prices will plummet, falling 12% in 2025 and further 5% in 2026 to their lowest level since 2020. The anticipated drop is being driven by slowing global economic growth and persistently high oil supply. This decline carries risks to economic growth in developing countries, with two-thirds likely to see setbacks, even though it may reduce short-term price pressures associated with rising trade barriers. Notwithstanding the drop, nominal prices will still be higher than they were before the pandemic.
Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group, stated:
“Commodity prices have whipsawed throughout the 2020s—plummeting with arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic, then surging to record highs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and then sinking again,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group. “In an era of geopolitical tensions, surging demand for critical minerals, and more frequent natural disasters, that could become the new normal. Successfully navigating through repeated commodity prices swings will require developing economies to build fiscal space, strengthen their institutions, and improve investment climates to facilitate job creation.”
On the other hand, Morgan Stanley, on February 21, highlighted that 2025 is anticipated to be a crucial year for commodity markets, influenced by supply fundamentals, inflation patterns, and dollar fluctuations. Inflation in the United States is still high, falling short of the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in December with headline CPI readings of 2.9% and core CPI readings of 3.2%. After the U.S. presidential election, policy changes—particularly related to immigration, deficits, and tariffs—have raised inflation expectations. According to data from the University of Michigan, they rose from 2.8% to 3.3% in just one month. Commodity prices have generally been supported by these conditions.
Since late September, the U.S. dollar has risen by almost 8%, in part because of growing interest rates and policy expectations. Global demand for commodities is usually pressured by a strong dollar, but if the currency stabilizes or depreciates, it may eliminate a significant obstacle. Although recent contango suggests sufficient short-term supply, a yield-adjusted perspective reveals markets in backwardation at about 4%, showing ongoing physical tightness. This suggests that inventories for essential commodities remain low, making the market more susceptible to demand shocks. Commodity performance in 2025 is supported by tight supply, high inflation, as well as potential dollar weakness.
With that said, here are the Top 15 Commodity Producers With the Highest Upside Potential.
Our Methodology
To collect data for this article, we examined companies operating in the commodity sector and then compiled a list of the stocks with the highest upside potential according to Wall Street analysts, as of May 1, 2025. To keep our list relevant, we have only included companies with a market cap of $10 billion and above. The following are the Commodity Producers with the Highest Upside Potential.
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15. BP p.l.c. (NYSE:BP)
Analysts’ Upside Potential as of May 01: 21.84%
BP p.l.c. (NYSE:BP) is an oil and gas conglomerate that conducts global oil exploration, production, and refining. It generated 6.9 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day and 1.2 million barrels of liquids in 2024. At the end of 2023, reserves totaled 6.8 billion barrels of oil equivalent, with liquids accounting for 55%. The business runs refineries that can process 1.6 million barrels of oil every day. It is ranked fifteenth on our list of the Best Commodity Stocks.
Although BP p.l.c. (NYSE:BP) continues to use the term “integrated energy company,” its original meaning has changed. They are no longer heavily investing in low-carbon initiatives and leaning into the energy transition as a result of their recent change of strategy. Rather, management is increasing investment in oil and gas and decreasing low-carbon investment after years of inadequate results after the implementation of the transition strategy. This is good news for investors.
Earnings for the first quarter of 2025 were below market estimates, while debt levels rose from the end of 2024. The quarter’s reported repurchase rate of $750 million fell short of the prior target range. Management expressed confidence in the strategy reset announced in February. Moreover, the firm expanded its resource base by making six exploratory discoveries, including noteworthy ones in the Gulf of Mexico, Trinidad, Egypt, and Namibia. BP p.l.c. (NYSE:BP) also lowered its core operational expenditure by $500 million quarter over quarter, showing its sustained commitment to cost control.
14. Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX)
Analysts’ Upside Potential as of May 01: 22.45%
Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) is a global energy business that engages in exploration, production, and refining. It produces 3.0 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, which includes 7.7 million cubic feet of natural gas per day and 1.7 million barrels of liquids per day, making it the second-largest oil business in the United States. Production occurs throughout North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. It can refine 1.8 million barrels of oil per day at its refineries in the US and Asia. At the end of 2024, proven reserves were 9.8 billion barrels of oil equivalent, which included 28.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 5.1 billion barrels of liquids. As per Morningstar analysts, its oil-leveraged portfolio’s volume growth and margin expansion, cost savings, and improved operations are anticipated to generate higher returns and more free cash flow. It is among the Best Commodity Stocks.
Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) reported strong fourth-quarter results for 2024, exceeding analyst projections by more than $3.8 billion and reporting sales of $52.23 billion, a 10.7% rise over the same quarter the year before. A 19% increase in US production and a 7% increase in global output, both of which established new records for the year, were major contributors to this expansion.
The firm maintained a strong financial position with a year-end net debt ratio of only 10%, and it also generated close to $8 billion from asset sales. Over time, Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX)’s dividend strategy has been strengthened by its consistent cash reserves. The business recorded operating cash flow of $31.5 billion and free cash flow of $15 billion for the fiscal year 2024. Its sustained dedication to shareholder returns is shown by the $12 billion in dividends it paid to shareholders and the $15 billion it repurchased in stock as a result of this strong cash flow.
13. Rio Tinto Group (NYSE:RIO)
Analysts’ Upside Potential as of May 01: 24.68%
Rio Tinto Group (NYSE:RIO) is a major global mining company that operates in iron ore, copper, aluminum (including bauxite and alumina), and minerals (diamonds, borates, salt, and mineral sands). Commodity demand is strongly linked to global economic growth, particularly in China. Over the past 20 years, the firm has profited enormously from the China boom. China is by far the company’s biggest client, accounting for over 60% of sales in 2024. It is one of the Best Commodity Stocks.
On April 4, 2025, Rio Tinto Group (NYSE:RIO) stated that it had invested $10.3 billion in Western Australia in 2024 to promote local businesses and build its pipeline for upcoming Pilbara mining projects. The company’s investments were mostly used for earthworks and the purchase of heavy mining equipment.
For the ninth year in a row, Rio Tinto Group (NYSE:RIO) has paid out ordinary dividends at the top end of the range, reaching $6.5 billion, while maintaining a 60% payout ratio, showing steady returns to shareholders. The firm had strong financial success with a 67% EBITDA cash conversion rate and a 3% rise in operating cash flow, despite an 11% decline in iron ore prices. The ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi, excluding the Arcadium Lithium acquisition, was the main driver of the 1% rise in copper equivalent production in 2024, with forecasts pointing to a further 4% increase. The copper and aluminum divisions both kept getting stronger, with aluminum specifically helping to boost product group EBITDA by 61%.
