The Southern Company (NYSE:SO) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Shar Pourreza: Just, Chris, thanks for kind of bringing that up a little bit just on — just, I guess, on the parent level maturities, it’s somewhat sizable over the next few years. So maybe can you just provide a little bit of the interest rate sensitivities, and I guess, how to manage those pressures, especially as we’re thinking about ’24 and I think you prior guided to right around that 395 to 415 range. So how do you manage that if you have a sensitivity there you can provide?

Dan Tucker: Yes. Look, Shar, just like we did this year, we’re going to kind of be thoughtful, creative, somewhat aggressive in terms of how we manage that. You saw us do the convert earlier this year that really mitigated the interest impact. We’ll do everything kind of at our disposal to execute in a way that keeps rates as low as possible. I think what everyone is likely stepping back in the industry and saying is, look, we all knew interest rates were higher, and this sense of higher for longer as you sit here today, it’s probably the longer piece that we all thought was perhaps not as long as what we’re seeing as we sit here. But I think it’s all consistent. And for us, kind of mitigated by this tremendous windfall of economic development activity we have.

In terms of sensitivities, look, if you think about kind of a 50 basis point sensitivity around interest rates as we move forward, think with every incremental year, it’s basically another an incremental penny of potential EPS plus or minus for that 50 basis points of interest rate sensitivity. And we’re not interest rate forecasters. We’re just basically using kind of public forecasts that are out there in terms of our planning.

Shar Pourreza: Okay. Perfect. That was all I had. I appreciate it. Thanks for the color and see you about in a week.

Operator: Our next question is coming from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

David Arcaro: Maybe starting on the load growth side of things first. When do you think you’ll start to see that coming through in the quarter? I guess, the actual weather-normal sales were down over the last 12 months kind of a similar experience. So when do you think that inflection kind of comes to start to point the underlying electric load growth getting towards that upper single-digit level?

Chris Womack: I think as we lay out the plan and what the needs are, probably in the ’26 time frame, I think, we’ll see some of this play out could be as late as ’25. I mean as plants begin and they’ve got to be constructed. They’ve got to go online. So yes, we look at late ’25, the early ’26 time frame. I think before you will see this kind of show up in those increased sales?

Dan Tucker: Yes. When you hear us talk about economic development activity and announcements, Dave, typically, that is three, four, five years from announcement time for facilities to get built, to get staffed to get trained and operating at a capacity that’s meaningful to our load.

David Arcaro: Yes, got it. That’s helpful color and context there. And then — was just wondering if you could maybe elaborate a little bit on the pump issue on Unit 4. Does this look — are there any indications that it could be a design issue with the pumps has this happened at other AP1000 units? Or does this look like it could just be a one-off here?

Chris Womack: I think it’s a little premature to say. I mean once we get it out, I mean, we’ll get it back to the manufacturer to see actually what happened and we’ll learn from that. But right now, our focus is on removal of the pump and then replacing it with a spare and then moving toward the process of putting the unit in service. So — but yes, I mean, we’ll take a hard look at, I mean what happened to the pump and we’ll repair it and move forward.

Operator: Our next question is coming from the line of Julian Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Indeed, likewise, Chris. Look, let’s talk about the upside CapEx just a little bit further here, if you don’t mind. I keep bothering you on this here. Let’s talk about first Alabama. To what extent is that going to be ripe for 4Q? And just also, how do you think about the ownership angle there as you think going forward, 2.6 gigs, I think that’s over six years, not trivial there as well. When you were talking about billions of upside, was that inclusive of that LMM opportunity? Or is that upside to the upside if you want to use that service?

Dan Tucker: It’s upside to the upside, Julien. So again, and I mentioned this earlier, we’re going to continue to be conservative on owned renewables that we absolutely have an expectation that will become part of the mix we’re not going to forecast it until we have better line of sight on individual projects. And in Alabama, those will largely be tied to individual customer stories. When it comes to this economic development activity, while I think kind of the tip of the spear sit here today is what’s happening in Georgia, there’s a lot of momentum across the rest of our electric service territory for opportunities like this.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Got it. Excellent. And just to clarify that, Alabama, that would be to the extent of which they’re more directly negotiated here with customers that would be presumably entirely an ownership opportunity and then just to clarify Carly’s question a little bit further, the FFO to debt piece of this, you’re thinking about targeting like a flat level here, even pro forma for the DRIP. It’s not like you’re leaning into the balance sheet by only turning on the DRIP. It’s that inclusive of that incremental capital, you’ll still hit a fairly flat level, if you will?

Dan Tucker: Yes. So on the first part, Julien, in terms of the mix of ownership — and this is going to be true for all of our electric service territories. It will be a mix. We expect to own a meaningful amount, but there is likely to be third-party PPAs in the mix here, just like there has historically. So, that’s the reason we’re not including anything forecast. We don’t want to be presumptuous as to exactly what that mix is. We just know or we have an expectation it will be meaningful. On the — I’m sorry, what was the second question again, Julien?

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Yes. Just in response to Carly’s question, and you said something about sort of reengaging on the DRIP here, hundreds of millions of equity. When you think about that ratio of equity versus CapEx, are you thinking that you can keep the metrics relatively flat with that? Or are you kind of expecting that to use, if you will, some of the balance sheet capacity?

Dan Tucker: Yes. I would call it flat, Julian. So, it’s flat over the long term. Our credit quality is a buffer against adversity that we have no desire to consume nor do we have — or are we positioned where we’ve got to kind of over equitize incremental growth. It is a flat long-term objective.