The AES Corporation (NYSE:AES) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Angie Storozynski: Okay. And then the last question about the — some flexibility on the retirement of the coal plants. I understand the reliability needs of local grids, et cetera. But this is not your renewables coming online later than expected. It’s just more of the market backdrop in which the coal plants operate. Is that correct?

Andres Gluski: Exactly. No, exactly. You’re taking it right. And as we’ve always indicated, we need regulatory approval to retire the coal plants. So what we’re seeing is in some of the markets not us, but the general build-out of renewables enough transmission has been somewhat slower than planned and that these plants are likely to be needed through 2027. But I would add that this is the small minority of our total plants, okay? So we’ve gone from 22 gigawatts to 7. We have line of sight to about 4 of that is already planned. And of the remaining roughly 3, it would be a minority of that in terms. So I’m not talking about any walking away from our decarbonization plan. It’s just a question that there — we’re seeing there’s a couple of plants where it’s going to be difficult to take them off-line prior to the expiry of their PPAs.

Operator: The next question will be from the line of Richard Sunderland with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Richard Sunderland: Andres, you spoke to active conversations on the asset sale front. I’m curious if you can outline at a high level how advanced those discussions are? And if this is an effort that could yield any announcements before year-end or I guess, earlier on in that sort of ’24, ’25 window?

Andres Gluski: Yes. It’s a good question. I would think that, again, it’s over a two-year period, but I would expect some important announcements in the first half of next year. And again, we tend to announce things when they’re very firm. So the negotiations, et cetera, are ongoing. It’s several assets. But yes, I would expect to be able to say something in the first half of next year.

Richard Sunderland: Understood. And then looking back at, I guess, it’s Slide 7, where you lay out the potential asset sales. Has any of your thinking on those buckets in terms of what’s actually in those buckets changed since the May Investor Day, I guess, in particular, I’m thinking about the noncore businesses and if there are any new thoughts there relative to six months ago?

Andres Gluski: What I’d say is, yes, I really can’t comment on that. I would say stay tuned, and we will make announcements in that regard. But it’s mostly assets that we have designated as noncore over time. So it’s more of an acceleration or perhaps a deepening of some of the sell-downs.

Richard Sunderland: That’s helpful. And I’ll try this from one other side if you’ll indulge me here, new and expanded partnerships. New partnerships, any flavor for what that means? Just again, trying to get a sense of the scope of the opportunity. Obviously, you’ve laid out the magnitude with this $2 billion figure in the over $3.5 billion in total.

Andres Gluski: Well, what I’d say is see what we’ve done in the past. So for example, if you look at when we made a big move into renewable energy, we — our first big acquisition was sPower and we brought in a new partner and that relationship has evolved over time. So we’re in a number of fields, which are very attractive right now. So I think it’s an interesting time to see what our partners want to do or if some additional partners want to come in. But we’re really sitting in a privileged position, especially for a lot of the new growing fields.

Operator: The next question will be from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: First question here, I’m going to take it and play in every direction. All right, deal. $3.5 billion here. You talk about coal exits of selective assets in ’27. To me, I hear that, and I’m asking well, how much does that delay some of the loss of contribution in the plan out to ’28, i.e., the earlier targets that you gave through ’27 contemplated full divestment of these assets. Now I get that you’re raising the asset divestment target. So in theory, there’s going to be fewer assets at the end. So in theory, you should be sacrificing some of the net income to the plan. But obviously, by selling some of the coal assets in ’27, you’re delaying or deferring some of the chunkiest lowest multiple assets potentially and the loss of the contribution into ’28.

I just want to like kind of hear how you think about that ’27 versus ’28, are you effectively pushing out a little bit of an earnings impact from ’27 into ’28 if you think about it or from ’25 into ’28?

Andres Gluski: What I’d say is you’re basically right that say, operating through the end of a couple of plants, PPAs, we have that flexibility, it would be beneficial. In terms of our asset sales, I mean, we have — our assets have different earnings profiles. So, how would I say, we feel confident that we have a plan in place that we will hit our numbers. Now when you talk about post 2027, getting into ’28, there’ll be a balance between bringing in partners for some of those growth projects post ’28. And there are a lot of factors, I think, happening in the market. I would expect, quite frankly, in our numbers, we don’t have much more efficiency improvements, and we’re working on a lot of technologies, which should have that.