Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Gregory Francfort: Thank you guys. Appreciate it.

Jerry Morgan: Thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Farmer with Gordon Haskett. Your line of open.

Jeff Farmer: Thank you. Just a quick clarification and the question. First up on the clarification I think you said you’re running with roughly 5.5% menu pricing in Q4. But what would pricing be in Q1 and Q2 with no additional price increases?

Michael Bailen: Yes. Hey Jeff it’s Michael. Yes, Q1 would be 4.8%, Q2 and Q3 would be 2.7%.

Jeff Farmer: Okay. That’s helpful. And then bigger picture question, the main question here is that, you shared with us your thoughts on the casual dining consumer on last call sort of some of the pushes and pulls you are seeing in terms of average check and maybe some trade down from other concepts into the roadhouse concept. But what is your updated thinking on the casual dining consumer demand backdrop. What have you seen in terms of either check management at roadhouse or potentially customers from other concepts trading down to a better price value at Texas Roadhouse?

Jerry Morgan: Yes. I tell you we’re very happy with our sales and the traffic and the sales overall. So we feel like we’re very well-positioned if we continue to deliver on our food promise and our service and hospitality that we’re winning that fight. Our food tastes great. I think the consumer is telling us that they want our food from what we can see from our traffic, it hasn’t slowed down for us technically if you look at the rest of the industry. So, we believe that the consumer is telling us to keep doing what we’re doing. We just need to be able to serve more of them on a all week long, and so that’s exciting good news for us. And we have people that trade down and I actually believe that we have a lot of people that trade up from that hospitality side of the business. So we’re positioned very well to continue to maintain those sales.

Michael Bailen: And hey Jeff, it’s Michael. From a mixed standpoint we actually probably saw a little bit of sequential improvement from Q2 to Q3, we had about a full percentage point of negative mix in Q3 versus about 1.2% in Q2. Most of that negative mix, the majority of it is still coming from the alcohol category probably thinks that’ll be with us through the end of the year.

Jeff Farmer: All right. Thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Chris O’Cull with Stifel. Your line is open.

Chris O’Cull: Thanks. Good afternoon guys. My question’s about the trade-off between traffic and profitability and I understand that there were some one-time costs this quarter. But the current flow-through rate I guess has been lower than prior years and the price increase I think has took in October here seems like it’s at a level that’ll probably have a minimal impact on traffic, but also not really provide the margin benefit to get back to that historic level. So I’m just wondering, Jerry, if there has been a debate internally or consideration for kind of raising prices more or sacrificing some traffic growth because it would seem the flow– the low flow-through rate would also be a frustrating for operators who appear to be working harder for less?

Jerry Morgan: Yes. I mean that’s a great question. We do internally think about that the protection of the top line is always a key component. It’s a little more expensive to do business. Again, we do believe at some point the beef deflation maybe someday will help us in that direction. I want to be careful I want to be seen as a value concept as always as we fight for that segment. But I think overall it is always on our mind in a conversation of how can we be more efficient, how can we be more effective on that profitability side, but we have to do right by our employees our guests and our holders. But it is a conversation of depth often.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Bernstein with Barclays. Your line is open.

Unidentified Analyst: Thanks. This is [Indiscernible] on for Jeff. Just wanted to pivot to Bubba’s. Jerry, how would you assess the current status of the brand? And how do you think about the growth in the future? Is there confidence internally about accelerating? And if Bubba’s is perhaps not the second concept in your portfolio would you ever consider M&A for future growth? Thanks.

Jerry Morgan: Well, we’re definitely excited about Bubba’s future and we are absolutely committed to its growth. We do view it as our second brand. We have the right operators. I’ve done a lot of work in the last 24 months to put the head of a concept and supporting people around that leader. We just added our first regional partner to the team. We’re very excited about what we’re doing on the food and the service environment and the leadership. We are definitely committed to Bubba’s. The sales are continuing to show through. It is producing the revenue that we’re looking for and we know it has the ability to turn the profit that we want. So, yes, we’re very excited about the Bubba’s concept. And the other question I really can’t answer at this time, we’re focused on our brands and we’ll see what happens in the future.

Unidentified Analyst: Appreciate the color. Thanks so much.

Jerry Morgan: Thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Strelzik with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Andrew Strelzik: Hey good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess my question is that I’m hoping you can talk a little bit more about the broader unit growth environment, certainly encouraging to see you accelerate the development pipeline in the next year, but in terms of things like supply chain and delays and permitting and build costs, can you give us a bit of an update of what you’re seeing? Or you see some easing in those factors as well? Thank you.

Jerry Morgan: Yes, the supply chain is continuing to stabilize, I would say, overall. From that, the permitting, we’ve kind of learned and adjusted our timelines to how it takes it and part of the plan to spread it out through the year helps us with that and it’s taken a significant effort to get to where we can open more restaurants all throughout the year versus kind of jammed up in the beginning and the end. So yes, there’s been some planning around that. But overall, we’ve got a real strong pipeline for 2024 and into 2025 and we’re continuing to look beyond that. And we’re excited about if we look at what we’re doing right now and what we’ve got on the books for over a 12-month period. It’s very exciting.

Andrew Strelzik: Great. Thanks a lot.

Jerry Morgan: Thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Joshua Long with Stephens. Your line is open.

Joshua Long: Great. Thank you for taking the questions. Hey Jerry, when thinking about the unit development environment, imagine that, it’s nice to hear that the supply chain side is starting to normalize or continue to normalize rather, but can you talk about some of the friction points that you are seeing, is that still on the permitting side? Is it equipment? Does anything else that you could share in terms of just what drives the ebbs and flows of unit development, as you think about, is otherwise a relatively strong pipeline going on to the out years for your brand?

Jerry Morgan: I mean, I think we’re doing good. The trades, maybe, again, just working out the timeline of what’s happened in the last couple of years and I think we’ve done a really good job to get projects lined up and now we know a little bit better of the timeline to get the trades set up to get the jobs going and done. So, a lot of work there. I feel very comfortable. There are a few things that get a little bit tight on some of the parts. Some of the bigger equipment, ice machines, things like that, we get a little bit concerned about, but I think right now we’ve got enough inventory to accomplish all of that. Even our mill works, which is our furniture, can be a little tight sometimes with this many openings. So, we’ve been working really hard with our vendor partners to make sure we have the materials and the equipment and the trades to do the job to get these stores open and obviously maintain our existing buildings.