Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:TCBI) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Michael Rose: Okay, but I guess the latter part of my question is just, can you help us try and bridge the gap to kind of get to some of the targets now that the capital levels are continuing to climb higher? I think that’s the real question. And just to follow-up — as my follow-up, the investment bank and trading line continue to move higher again this quarter, obviously really hard to predict, but it seems like we’re getting a greater confidence in the durability of the business model here? So maybe if you can kind of encapsulate that all, which I think is the question that most investors are asking? Thanks.

Matt Scurlock: Michael, so keeping our average assets north of $130 million for 1.3% for the second straight quarter, we got to get that to $165 million to $170 million, which on the same size balance sheet is $20 million to $25 million of additional PPNR per quarter. There is a multitude of levers that will be dependent on the environment, which we find ourselves in ’24 and ’25, as we continue to warehouse liquidity that’s certainly an available lever. If you simply move the loan-to-deposit ratio back to 90% through repositioning of cash into loans, that’s going to drive another $7 million or so of quarterly PPNR. And then to your comment, fee-generating businesses, while we’ve seen material progress this year, they’re in their infancy, they’re brand new.

So, for example, we got a pretty robust at this point M&A offering. The M&A bankers landed in the second quarter. So they had over 80 conversations with clients this quarter. So 80 conversations in the last 90 days about prospective M&A transactions over the next two years. But those are brand-new businesses. So if we were to look into the crystal ball and look forward, you would continue to prospect the recycling capital from low-return relationships and to those, where we can be more relevant, drive higher risk-adjusted return on the allocated capital, start to reduce some of the excess liquidity as the deposit base continues to improve. That provides that $6 million, $7 million to support the PPNR right there. And then the expense outlook and probably too early to go detailed into 2024, but we continue to run the same playbook that we have on a non-interest expense stage, where we’re focused on making technology investments that lead to structural improvements in how we show up for our clients, while reducing risk and increasing efficiency.

Michael Rose: That’s really helpful. Thanks. Thanks for that, Matt. Thanks for taking my question guys. Appreciate it.

Rob Holmes: See you, Michael.

Operator: Our next question today comes from Matt Olney of Stephens. Matt, your line is open.

Matt Olney: Hey, thanks. Good morning, everybody. On the mortgage finance, great to see those balances of loans and deposits outperform in a difficult backdrop in the third quarter. Any more colors on that outperformance that we just saw? And then, Matt, you mentioned industry expectations for originations, down 20% in the fourth quarter. Can you just talk about the ability or potential to outperform that? Thanks.

Matt Scurlock: Yeah. The mortgage market — we also said in the comments the next six months can be the most challenged in the last 15 years. I mean, just yesterday, you saw home affordability at a 25-year low, just as 30-year fixed rate mortgages hit a 25-year high, which is certainly oppressing industry-wide originations as you know, Matt, and we will generally move at about 75% beta relative to change in overall [indiscernible] originations. So professional forecasters are now calling for originations to be down about 35% across the industry for the year, which would suggest we’ll be down by about 25% for the year to look for a full year average balance somewhere in the low-4s, of off a 5.3 full year average balance last year.