Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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In terms of profitability, the range of potential outcomes is similarly wide. As I mentioned earlier, we’re positioned to benefit from a number of significant tailwinds on the gross margin line, most notably as we cycle over last year’s inventory actions. In addition, we’re expecting hundreds of millions of dollars of additional opportunity from lapping last year’s unusually high freight and transportation costs. At the same time, we’re also preparing for some notable headwinds on the gross margin line. These include inventory shrink, which may continue to rise before we see rates begin to moderate over time. We’re also expecting some pressure from soft sales in our highest-margin discretionary categories. And finally, we see the potential for increased promotional intensity across the industry this year, given that we’re competing in a constrained environment for consumer spending.

On the SG&A line this year, we expect continued strong discipline in managing costs across the enterprise, but we’re also not backing away from investments in our team and guest experience, and we’ll face potential rate deleverage given our outlook for comparable sales. In light of these considerations, we’re planning for a wide range of potential outcomes for our full year operating income. But even at the low end of those expectations, we expect to grow our operating income by more than $1 billion this year. Altogether, our expectations translate to a full year GAAP and adjusted EPS range of $7.75 to $8.75, which represents growth of about $1.75 per share at the low end of the range. On the CapEx line this year, we’re expecting to invest between $4 billion and $5 billion.

While this range is somewhat lower than last year’s CapEx, it’s quite strong relative to our history. This year’s plan reflects the optimal level to invest in the current environment and our expectation that we’ll continue to earn higher returns on our long-term growth investments, including our remodel program and new store pipeline and our continued work to build capacity and capabilities in our supply chain. As we think about the longer-term trajectory of our business, we expect that as external conditions normalize in the next several years, our operating income margin rate should reach and begin to move beyond our pre-pandemic rate of 6%. This return to pre-pandemic levels could happen as early as 2024, depending on the speed of recovery for the economy and consumer demand.

I want to pause and emphasize that this year’s guidance does not reflect how we expect our business to perform over the longer term. Once we see a normalization of consumer demand and a resumption of growth in discretionary categories, you’ll see that reflected in a stronger top line performance and a meaningful increase in our operating margin rate beyond what we’re planning for this year. I also want to reiterate something we’ve said many times. While we often talk about rates because it’s helpful for analytical purposes, our goal is to find the optimal rate that maximizes profit dollar growth over time. In other words, we’ll continue to focus simultaneously on top line growth and the rate we earn on it without focusing on either metric and isolation.

So now before I invite Brian and Mike O’Neil to join me on stage, I want to pause and thank our team for their continued optimism and resilience through a turbulent year. Last year presented a host of unexpected and unprecedented challenges that all seemed to arrive at once. Through it all, our team maintained a long-term focus, serving our guests and taking care of each other. As a result, we saw continued expansion in guest traffic and engagement throughout the year and historically strong hiring and retention metrics across our team. Those are some of the most important factors in determining our long-term success and why I feel so confident about Target’s potential in the years ahead. Now I’d like to invite Brian and Mike O’Neil to join me on stage so we can have a brief conversation about the enterprise efficiency work we’ve asked Mike to lead.

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