Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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At the same time, we’ll continue investing in our long-term strategic initiatives that propel our market share and profit growth, including our remodel program, our new store pipeline and projects to add replenishment capacity and increased efficiency in our supply chain. We’ll also focus on strengthening our balance sheet. In 2022, our business was a net user of cash for the first time in many years. This was driven by a host of unique factors, including unexpectedly low profitability, higher-than-expected CapEx driven by inflation and project costs and a rapid slowdown in inventory turns due to excess inventory and longer lead times in global shipping. This year, we expect each of those factors to become more favorable. More specifically, we’re expecting an increase in profit dollars in a somewhat slower pace of CapEx. And given our cautious inventory positioning and rapidly improving lead times in global shipping, we’re planning for faster inventory turns in 2023, driving higher payables leverage and recovery in working capital as we move through the year.

In the near term, until those expectations play out and our cash generation increases, we’re not planning to repurchase any shares consistent with our goal to maintain our middle A credit ratings. Over time, as our cash flow recovers and our debt metrics improve, we expect share repurchases will play a meaningful role within our broader, long-term capital deployment priorities, but as always, those repurchases will only occur after we fully invested in our business and supported our team after we’ve supported our dividend goals and within the limits of our middle A ratings. Now I want to share some thoughts on our 2023 outlook, and I’ll start with our expectations for the first quarter. Given the current conditions we’re facing, we expect our business to generate first quarter comparable sales in a wide range, from a low single-digit decline to a low single-digit increase.

This reflects our expectation for continued strength in our frequency businesses, offset by softness in discretionary categories. On the operating income line, we’re expecting a first quarter rate in the 4% to 5% range, higher than what we saw in the fourth quarter, but down somewhat from the 5.3% our business generated in last year’s first quarter. While there are a number of factors driving this expectation, I’d note that our first quarter SG&A expense rate is expected to be about one percentage point higher than a year ago, reflecting continued investments in our team and guest experience, without an expected leverage benefit from higher sales. Altogether, on the bottom line, we expect our business to generate first quarter GAAP and adjusted EPS in a range from $1.50 to $1.90.

Now I’ll turn to our full year expectations. And I’ll first note that the range of potential outcomes gets wider as the year goes on, given the high degree of uncertainty regarding the strength of the economy and the consumer. Given this uncertainty, we firmly believe caution is the appropriate posture, especially when planning sales and inventory in discretionary categories. On the frequency side of the business, our full year plans envision continued share gains and strong sales growth. But we’re mindful that inflation in these categories may begin to moderate, pressuring dollar comps across the industry. In light of those considerations, along with our outlook for discretionary categories, we’re planning for the same wide range on the top line that we’re planning for the first quarter, from a low single-digit decline to a low single-digit increase in our comparable sales.

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