Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ:RUN) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Brian Lee: Hey, everyone. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. And I apologize in advance if you already kind of went through this. But I’d be curious if you could maybe give us a bit more detail around where the biggest delta is coming from in the new megawatt install guidance versus prior, whether it’s states, customer types, or maybe how much of a function of this is being — let’s customers being available to meet your return requirements since you’re just kind of pulling back, if you could maybe provide a little bit more of a breakdown between where you’re seeing the pullback in the volume outlook here?

Mary Powell: Yes, I mean as we look at the solar installed megawatt volume outlook. I think as we lay out in the deck in the presentation very clearly, I mean, there’s basically three things driving it, Brian. So one is, the trajectory of just pure up sales recovery in California was a little bit slower than we anticipated. So that definitely impacts the outlook. As we also said in the call we are seeing, again, really good numbers, growth numbers in other states, but again we break it down showing that again we’re losing because of a certain amount of that change in the uptick in the trajectory. We also leaned in really hard to hold home backup. So that was something that also really drove our outlook when we saw that we could really make strides in our goals towards cash generation by leveraging customers’ interest in storage.

And so that’s why we also launched the storage retrofit program this quarter as well. And then the third thing was, we were seeing sub-par economics in the channel segment of the market and so we made really strategic decisions to prioritize value over pure solar megawatt growth in certain areas.

Brian Lee: Okay, fair enough. That all makes sense. And then just second question before I pass it on. I know the cash generation target you’re reiterating here, $200 million to $500 million by the end of this year. Why is there such a wide delta? I mean, presumably — given it’s already November, I mean, presumably financing is a swing factor. One, is that correct? And then two, kind of what sort of options are on the table here through year end that drive that swing factor? And then what’s driving the uncertainty around timing, I suppose, given it’s a couple more months here before the end of the year. Thank you.

Danny Abajian: Hey Brian, it’s Danny. I think just to clarify at the top, the guidance for hitting cash generation annualized within the range is specific to the fourth quarter of next year. And then the five quarters of total cumulative cash generation is also through the end of next year, not through the end of this year, just to make sure I clarified that, because I think that’s potentially where the question is coming from in thinking that it’s 2023. But I think just generally looking at the guidance and the assumptions, I think the few changes we’ve made in the assumption set we’ve noted on the page and as I called out in the remarks, and there’s more specificity on the timing and the total cumulative cash generation. But again, that’s over the next five quarters, taking us through the end of next year, not through the end of this year.

Brian Lee: Okay. Understood. Appreciate the clarification. I guess having said that, though, it’s still a pretty wide delta. What are kind of the swing factors where you hit 2 versus 5 over five quarters?

Danny Abajian: You mean the delta between $200 million and $500 million within the range?

Brian Lee: Correct, yes.

Danny Abajian: Yes. So I think we’ve noted in the past, I’ll call out a few not to hit every single one, but the backup storage mix, that’s one we actually took up version over version, as we’ve seen that strength that we just discussed. The ITC adders, we nudged up slightly from 34 to 35. The shape of the attainment of that is more back-ended over the course of this period of time. And the swing factor there is really, the last of which comes in is domestic content. And there’s generally a wider range of outcomes [indiscernible] content, as there is less clarity at the moment, but we remain bullish on the upside there. And that’s back-ended capital costs. We’ve adjusted the range, but are still planning for this amount within that range.

And I think we’ve noted a 0.25 point is about 1 percentage point change in our advance rate, which annualizes somewhere in the range of about $50 million plus or minus. So that’s to give you the heuristic on the plus or minus on advance rates. I would say those are the big costs falling, equipment costs. Another one we mentioned that is another factor at play, which is delivering, again, over time in increasing amounts.

Brian Lee: All right, super helpful. Thank you.

Operator: Our next question is from Joe Osha with Guggenheim Partners. Please proceed.

Joseph Osha: Thank you. Hello, hello. To follow up on Brian’s line of questioning. Once we get to the end of 2024, I’m seeing you use words like annualized and recurring. Is the implication that that level of cash flow generation be something that we can expect to continue and/or grow in future years? Is that what you’re signaling with that language? And then I have a couple other questions.

Danny Abajian: Yeah, absolutely. That’s the — the recurrence in nature is both recurring and with the objective of growing it over time once we stick the landing and getting within that range for all the reasons I mentioned.