SunOpta Inc. (NASDAQ:STKL) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Andrew Strelzik: Got it. Okay. That’s helpful. And then in terms of the capital allocation of potential share buybacks, I guess I’m curious how you’re thinking about that from the cadence perspective in relation to capacity needs, I know some of that has been pushed out, obviously, but it sounds like based on when you expect to hit your leverage targets and things like that, eventually we’re going to get to a situation where you’re going to be spending a given capacity expansion. So I guess just comment here on how you or your ability to kind of balance those two things?

Joseph Ennen: Yes, I would say, I mean from a prioritization standpoint, we absolutely feel like the best value and the best use of cash flow at this point in time is a share buyback. As it relates to future capital needs, as you heard in our discussion around what our core priorities are, operational excellence and squeezing more out of our existing manufacturing base and infrastructure is a massive priority for us. And I certainly believe that we can continue to drive strong volume growth for the next several years with the assets we currently own.

Andrew Strelzik: Okay. And then if I could just squeeze one more in here about the comments you made with respect to the $125 million being in ’25 or ’26, can you maybe elaborate on the swing factor there. I think what you were talking about was timing of onboarding and things like that. There’d obviously be a big leap in EBITDA from the ’24 guide to that in ’25. So I guess, I mean, does it seem like ’26 is more realistic? Do you think that’s possible in ’25, just a little more color there would be great. And thank you.

Joseph Ennen: Yes, so the answer to the question is it’s highly informed by new business. And as I indicated, we’ll be in a much better position to comment on the quantum of new business that we see for the back half of ’24 and into 2025. So we have several big opportunities that we’re enthusiastic about and are pursuing. But until those are certain, it’d be premature to kind of peg the date. But consistent with what we’ve said, when we first rolled out the $150 million or $125 million target that represented kind of full network utilization and we’re absolutely pursuing that. So I would say, can give you probably a better reference point on that — on the Q4 call.

Andrew Strelzik: Great. Thank you very much.

Operator: Thanks, Andrew. And our next question comes from the line of Alex Fuhrman with Craig-Hallam Capital Group. Alex, please go ahead.

Alex Fuhrman: Hey guys, thanks very much for taking my question and congratulations on the sale of the frozen fruit business. Obviously, foodservice restaurants, that sounds like the most important channel for you guys, of course, by a pretty good margin. Do you have any insight into what you think has really been driving what’s been a pretty huge divergence in trends for plant-based milks between grocery stores, club, and restaurants? Curious what you really attribute that to, and if you expect tracked channels to continue to underperform for the foreseeable future. And then I’d be curious also, just given your dominant share in shelf stable plant-based milks, if you’ve noticed any sort of a divergence in the broader category across all channels between refrigerated and shelf-stable plant-based milk?

Joseph Ennen: Yes, working backwards, we haven’t seen a big divergence between shelf-stable and refrigerated. They’ve tracked incredibly closely together in terms of performance. In terms of why we think there’s been such a divergence, again, I think you’re seeing a number of things and happening in the foodservice coffee shop channel one is that routinized behavior that I mentioned prior. Second is, I think as you get more and more people returning to work, the Starbucks or whatever coffee shop drive through continues to be then a popular destination, you would have seen same-store comps being reported recently from one of the large coffee shop chains last week, which saw both revenue growth on a per drink basis as well as store traffic gains. So I think they are in aggregate the channel, meaning the coffee shop channel is doing a great job around product innovation and keeping their customers engaged.

Alex Fuhrman: Okay, that’s really helpful, Joe. Thank you very much.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. And with that, we will take our next question from the line of Jon Anderson with William Blair. Jon, please go ahead.

Jon Anderson: Hey, thank you very much. Hi, Joe. Hi, Greg.

Joseph Ennen: Hi, Jon.

Jon Anderson: Let’s see, so where to start? Why don’t we begin on the ’24 sales outlook? I’m wondering if it may not be possible at this point, but I’ll ask if you could kind of add some dimension to the high single-digit to low double-digit growth rate across the three buckets that you use to describe the growth opportunity, that being — those being share their gains with existing customers, new customers in TAM expansion. I’d love to get a better sense for the relative size of each of those in driving that growth in ’24 if possible? Thanks.

Joseph Ennen: I think it’s pretty split, John, between share gains, new customers in TAM expansion. We see real positive, as we kind of talked throughout 2023, a lot of activity around gaining share from existing customers as well as onboarding new customers. And certainly, Texas opened a lot of doors for us in that regard. And then, of course, TAM expansion with the protein shake. So all three of them will deliver and contribute to that growth algorithm.

Jon Anderson: Good. Okay, so balance there. Good. And then you mentioned that the two lines that are producing in Midlothian now are running at about 60% of where you’d like them to be ultimately. Is that kind of where you had hope to be at this point and maybe more importantly, what are the steps that are necessary to get that to I guess 100% from here? And do you have kind of good line of sight, do you feel at this point in time to that?

Joseph Ennen: Yes, I would say we have very good line of sight to the continued progression of the startup curve. So, yes, we’re feeling very good about our ability to continue to progress and push that up.

Jon Anderson: And the third line, Joe, is going to be focused on which area of the business?

Joseph Ennen: It would be core plant-based milks. Probably a heavy skew to oat.