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Sothebys (BID), The Walt Disney Company (DIS), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF): Following Daniel Loeb’s Bets

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Daniel Loeb, founder of Third Point LLC, is one of the most successful activist investors of the last decade. I had the chance to assist in a class led by him during my years at Columbia Business School. He is just as you might imagine him to be: smart, cold and assertive. Here I want to take a look at three of his positions and answer one question: should you invest in these companies as well?

Betting on the bidding house
Dan Loeb has accumulated a 6% stake in the leading auction house, Sothebys (NYSE:BID). Even with the stock up by more than 100% since 2010, I think there is still room for continued outperformance. That’s partly thanks to up-and coming property sales and management changes that should help propel operating cash-flow margins up to 38%, which was the level attained during the 2010 financial year (the current level is just below 31%).

Sothebys (NYSE:BID)

With an economy in full recovery (at least in developed markets) and a duopoly in place (Sothebys (NYSE:BID) shares the +$10 billion a year market with privately held Christie’s) I think Loeb and his fund are, once again, betting on a winner. Sothebys (NYSE:BID) trades at 25 times earnings, but good things are very rarely cheap.

One Buffet stock pick by Loeb
Loeb has recently been adding shares to his position in The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS). This company has a very strong business that doesn’t seem to be diminishing with age. Basically, parents know that with any product by The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS), their children will get high-quality and safe entertainment. This is very difficult (if not impossible) to replicate. Better yet, this phenomena is truly international and extends from theme parks to movies to video games.

Moreover, the stock’s valuation does not seem very rich. The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) trades at 18 times 2013 earnings, while the company is growing its top line by 4.5% year-over-year (yoy). In a more in-depth analysis, The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) also looks fairly priced. Summing up all the parts that compose the company (ESPN, the recently acquired Lucas Films, all the theme parks), its not difficult to realize that there is a lot of value to be unlocked going forward. Besides, after some heavy investments and acquisitions (such as Lucas Films) its very probable that a dividend increase is just around the corner. Go long on The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS), because some things never change.

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