2.The Nasdaq Composite will beat the Dow this week
Tech has been a big winner in recent years, so betting on tech over stodgy blue chips has been a good bet for me more often than not.
I’m going to stick with this pick. Most of the names in the composite are just too cheap at this point, and tech should be what carries us through the economic recovery. Yes, earnings reports have been rough in some places this season, but the long-term outlook is still quite favorable, and the market is ripe for the tech-stacked secondary stocks to continue to outpace the 30 megacaps that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
3. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ:GMCR) will beat Wall Street’s earnings estimates
Some stocks are just flat-out better than others.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ:GMCR) is the company behind the Keurig single-cup brewing system. It has lost patent protection for its K-Cups refills, but it’s still finding a way to strike deals with the biggest players in hot beverages. Another thing it does is make analysts look like perpetual underachievers. If analysts say the company posted a profit of $0.77 a share in its latest quarter, I’ll argue that it held up better than that. History’s on my side!
One of my best tricks to beating the market is finding stocks that perpetually land ahead of the prognosticators. Let’s go over the past year of earnings reports.
| Quarter | EPS Estimate | EPS | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2012 | $0.50 | $0.52 | 4% |
| Q4 2012 | $0.48 | $0.64 | 33% |
| Q1 2013 | $0.65 | $0.76 | 17% |
| Q2 2013 | $0.74 | $0.93 | 26% |
Source: Thomson Reuters.
Things can change, of course. It’s been an unusually warm summer, and hot coffee it still a seasonal beverage that’s consumed more when the weather turns chilly. It’s also hard to get a clear read on the success that third-party coffee companies in putting out their non-Keurig K-Cups.
However, it’s hard to argue against the trend. Everything seems to be falling into place for another market-thumping quarter on the bottom line.
Three for the road
Well, there are three predictions right there. Let’s see how I fare this week.
The retail space is in the midst of the biggest paradigm shift since mail order took off at the turn of last century. Only the most forward-looking and capable companies will survive, and they’ll handsomely reward investors who understand the landscape.
The article 3 Predictions for the New Week originally appeared on Fool.com and is written by Rick Munarriz.
Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz owns shares of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters and SodaStream. The Motley Fool recommends Green Mountain Coffee Roasters and SodaStream and owns shares of Multimedia Games and SodaStream.
Copyright © 1995 – 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
