We came across a bullish thesis on Snap Inc. (SNAP) on Substack by LongYield. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on SNAP. Snap Inc. (SNAP)’s share was trading at $7.83 as of May 1st. SNAP’s forward P/E was 36.63 according to Yahoo Finance.
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Snap Inc.’s Q1 2025 earnings show notable progress, with total revenue reaching $1.363 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase. The bulk of this revenue comes from advertising, totaling $1.211 billion, which grew 9% from the previous year. Additionally, the company’s subscription service, Snapchat+, brought in $152 million, a significant 75% increase. This shift towards direct-response (DR) advertising, now representing 75% of ad revenue, marks a strategic pivot, although brand-oriented advertising revenue experienced a 3% decline. This decline in brand advertising signals potential challenges in upper-funnel demand, which could be a sign of broader macroeconomic pressures affecting advertiser spending.
On the profitability front, Snap made substantial improvements, narrowing its net loss to $140 million from $305 million in the same quarter last year, representing a 54% improvement. This was driven by higher revenues, reduced non-recurring costs, and gains from repurchasing $1.44 billion of convertible notes. The company also saw a 137% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, which reached $108 million, underscoring Snap’s disciplined approach to cost management. Furthermore, operating cash flow of $152 million and free cash flow of $114 million reflect the company’s solid financial position, with a trailing twelve-month free cash flow totaling $295 million. Snap’s balance sheet shows a healthy $3.2 billion in cash and marketable securities, alongside a reduced debt load of $3.5 billion after issuing new senior unsecured notes.
Snap’s user base continues to grow, with daily active users (DAUs) increasing 9% year-over-year to 460 million. The growth in the Rest of the World region was particularly strong, up 16% from the previous year, while North America saw a slight decline in DAUs. The company’s monthly active users surpassed 900 million, marking a key milestone. Although global impressions grew by 17% year-over-year, Snap faced a decline in effective cost-per-mille (eCPM), down 7% due to inventory expansion outpacing demand. Despite these challenges, Snap saw a 60% increase in active advertisers, with small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) driving this growth, which speaks to improvements in the company’s advertising platform.
Snapchat+ continues to perform well, with nearly 15 million subscribers, reflecting a 59% increase year-over-year. The service’s $152 million in revenue is now on an annualized run rate of over $600 million, diversifying Snap’s revenue streams and reducing reliance on traditional advertising. The company’s strategic investments in AI, machine learning, and augmented reality (AR) also stand out, with the company reporting a low cost per DAU in these areas, positioning itself for long-term growth through enhanced user engagement and advertising effectiveness.
However, Snap’s Q1 performance was met with skepticism, especially following the company’s decision not to provide Q2 guidance. This lack of forward-looking direction, coupled with macroeconomic uncertainties and regulatory changes, caused a 13% drop in its stock price after the earnings report. Despite strong revenue growth and profitability, Snap faces risks from these uncertainties, including the potential impact of regulatory changes, particularly concerning advertising from China. Additionally, the company continues to face challenges in monetizing users in lower-ARPU regions like the Rest of the World.
For investors, Snap’s focus on DR advertising and Snapchat+ growth, combined with its investments in AI and AR, presents a solid long-term strategy. However, short-term risks, including market reactions to uncertainty and economic headwinds, require careful monitoring. Overall, Snap is making strides towards profitability and financial flexibility, but near-term volatility should be expected as the company navigates these challenges.
Snap Inc. (SNAP) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 44 hedge fund portfolios held SNAP at the end of the fourth quarter which was 34 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of SNAP as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than SNAP but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.
