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Should I Sell Diageo plc (DGE) to Buy SABMiller plc (SAB)?

LONDON — I’m a big fan of Diageo plc (LON:DGE). The world’s largest producer of premium spirits is a core holding in my portfolio, though I’ve done a little profit-taking as the stock has powered ahead — up a third over the past 12 months.

I’m less familiar with South African-based SABMiller plc (LON:SAB), though its market cap is slightly larger than Diageo after its shares are up 50% over the year. I think of it as expensive, but a quick check on my data provider shows the two shares equally rated with prospective price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19.7 and yields of 2.3% for Diageo and 2.2% for SABMiller plc (LON:SAB). So maybe it’s time to do a little portfolio rebalancing.

Hangover
Diageo plcFirst of all, what’s so good about Diageo plc (LON:DGE)? It ticks a lot of boxes: defensive sector, strong brands, global footprint, and emerging market growth. I like stocks that are plays on emerging market consumers. While the West is suffering a hangover from a decade of overspending, millions of people in emerging markets are acquiring a disposable income for the first time.

Diageo plc (LON:DGE)’s really clever trick is the way acquisitions, brands, and distribution interact. The company has grown by buying local brand leaders, distributing the new brands globally while creating a new market to sell its existing brands into.

Too posh for Skegness
SABMiller plc (LON:SAB) is the world’s second-largest brewery. It’s even more of a play on emerging markets, which generate three quarters of EBITDA. Over 90% of sales come from markets where it has the highest or second-highest share. Its brand and distribution-led strategy is similar to Diageo plc (LON:DGE)’s. It’s an astute manager of brand value, ruffling feathers last month when it ruled a Skegness Hotel as too down market to stock its premium Peroni beer on tap.

SABMiller plc (LON:SAB) has just gone through a change of management, with the long-serving CEO who shaped the company in its present form stepping down in favor of an internal successor groomed for the job. It’s the same story at Diageo, an indication of the board’s confidence in management.

Valuations
SABMiller plc (LON:SAB) is a riskier share than Diageo plc (LON:DGE). It has more concentration risk, with 40% of revenues coming from South Africa and Colombia combined. It is more dependent on joint ventures, in the U.S. and China. Governance is less straightforward, with its South African base, an interim period of combining chairman and CEO roles, and a 27% strategic shareholder.

Its vast opportunities in Africa and other emerging markets explain the equal valuations. So I think it’s a reasonable share to hold at this price, but I’ll keep the bulk of my play on this theme in Diageo plc (LON:DGE).

The article Should I Sell Diageo to Buy SABMiller? originally appeared on Fool.com and is written by Tony Reading.

Tony Reading owns shares of Diageo. The Motley Fool recommends Diageo.

Copyright © 1995 – 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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