Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCVL) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Sam Poser : And then one last thing just about the — this timing shift. The — it appears to me that you probably expect the comps to improve through the year. But because of the way you have the weeks comparing, again, back to this Q2, Q3 situation. Can you give us sort of how this works by quarter, like what the — you said $25 million, I think, in Q3 was shifting to Q2, but you lose a small week at the beginning of Q2 and you gain a big week at the end. How does that affect Q1, Q2, Q3, and you lose, I guess, $15 million in Q4. But can you sort of walk through that and give us each quarter with how to think about just the dollar shift in and out of each quarter?

Patrick Edwards: Sam, this is Patrick. You’re correct. The meaningful impacts to be focused on is this large week that we have that moves out of Q3 and into Q2. That’s the $25 million net week, not a gross weak, but that’s the net amount that moves between the shifting of what moves in and what moves out. And then the $15 million that we lose in Q4 compared to 2023, those are the 2 meaningful elements of it in the quarterly shifts. Again, over both of those periods of time between Q2 and Q3, we would expect our sales growth to level out to that 4% to 6% growth rate that we have for the overall year. In Q4, that growth rate will be lower because we’re losing that $15 million.

Sam Poser : Right. I understand. But what I’m saying is that in Q2, so you’re gaining a week that’s bigger than $25 million, and then you’re losing a week that’s much smaller than that. And you’re getting a — you’re netting that, but you’re gaining like $30 million and then losing $5 million or whatever it is. Can you give us the plus and minus for each quarter? It would just really help being able to…

Patrick Edwards: Sure. So I’ll try it again in a different way. The impact on Q1 is not meaningful. The impact on Q2 will be plus $25 million, and the impact on Q3 will be minus $25 million. And then Q4 is roughly down $15 million.

Operator: Another question comes from the line of Mitch Kummetz with Seaport Research.

Mitch Kummetz: When I ask Sam’s last question maybe a little bit differently. I want to focus on the EBIT. So starting with the 53rd week this — in 2023, Patrick, you mentioned that was about $15 million in sales. What was the impact on EBIT? And then that 2Q, 3Q $25 million shift you’re referencing, how does that sort of flow through to EBIT? Like how much EBIT is shifting from 3Q to 2Q?

Patrick Edwards: Mitch, it’s a great question. Our point of view on that, generally speaking, is each one of those sales dollars is roughly about $10 million — or excuse me, is about 10% of operating income. So $15 million, $1.5 million-ish, something like that on operating income on — before you get — sorry, before you get down to operating income, it’s probably going to be bigger than that. It’s probably somewhere around half that number. So the $15 million is principally somewhere around half of that without any other effects.

Mitch Kummetz: I guess I didn’t quite follow that. Because you said $1 million is about 10% and then you said something about half I didn’t…

Patrick Edwards: Sorry. Sorry, Mitch. Let me get your question again. It’s down to an EBIT number. So it’s 8% to 10% of the number. Like I said before, on operating income. Whenever we’re pulling down to — from revenues down to EBIT, it’s about 8% to 10%.

Mitch Kummetz: Okay. And then on 2024, you mentioned that gross margin will be sort of flattish year-over-year. How does that sort of break out between merch margin and BD&O? I’m assuming maybe especially kind of given the comp level that those are probably sort of flattish as well? Is that how you’re thinking about it?

Patrick Edwards: Mitch, that’s another good question. I can start to give — provide a little bit of color and then have Mark pull back in a little bit. But with respect to our overall gross profit margin, we do see the capabilities of keeping this above 35% thing running for the entire year. We still need a little bit more clarity on the Rogan’s acquisition and whether or not those stores will have some bit of impact. And as we move them into our process and our ability and into our distribution and supply chain. But overall, we see a margin that a gross profit margin that will stick and be even to the current year. I would say with respect to merchandise margin and our product margins associated with that, we still see strong product margins continuing into the current year, and those product margins is what drives our overall merchandise margin.

So those will be flat. And then the concept of BD&O is also expected to be flat, but hopefully improving a little bit as we leverage some stores over some sales growth.

Mitch Kummetz: Okay. And then one last one for me. Just on the SG&A, it sounds like from a marketing standpoint, you guys seem to be seeing a lot of success with the new campaign. It sounds like you’re not really — for 2024, it doesn’t sound like you’re expecting to spend more from a percentage standpoint. You’re just expecting to spend sort of better in terms of kind of how and when you’re flowing those marketing dollars. Could you maybe just sort of elaborate on that?