Shell plc (NYSE:SHEL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Sinead Gorman: Super. Indeed. No. Thanks, Christopher. And specifically on working capital. So in terms of the working capital, we’ve had comments in the past about the fact that our working capital has been an outflow. And as you saw this quarter, it was a substantial inflow of over $10 billion as well. Volatility comes with working capital. Our working capital comes from volatility is probably a better way of putting it. And we are in a great position where we have the financial framework that allows us to take this and have the capability to make money from us, of course. So as we play through that, what are we expecting to see? In terms of the working capital that occurred this quarter, there were a number of things. It was price that came down obviously impacted.

We saw a change less outflows with respect to margin, which you referred to as well, and that was to active management. We really looked at what are the right returns we need for that side of things and for the margining. And the third one is some one-offs. So in those one-offs, we saw quite a few people actually prepaying us towards year-end, so their own form of active cash management. And we also saw, of course, some cash deposits from some of our joint ventures who have to pay tax in January rather than in December. So just a change in terms of how taxes are playing out for them. As such, specifically to your question, how much do I expect to see? I’m probably seeing $4 billion to $5 billion of that number that came in, I would expect to see flow out.

Now of course, that’s just simply about things that will reverse in Q1. How working capital will play out will depend on, as you well know, the pricing and the different deals that we do during that quarter. So I won’t speculate more than that. I would say that our margin, we’re very active in looking at, and we’re ensuring we have an appropriate return for it. You also asked about the payout ratio, which I think you said was outdated. With respect to the payout ratio, as you know, we’ve been quite clear on this and the fact that we have 20% to 30% range of CFFO. And taking a step back from that as well, 20% to 30%, well, as you can see, when market conditions and economic conditions allow for it, we go beyond that. So you can see in the course of the year, we actually got to 35%.

That’s not about being outdated. That’s about an effect of us having 20% to 30% through the cycle, and that’s why we are very, very clear on the fact that it is a soft ceiling and a hard floor if that helps.

Wael Sawan: Thanks for that, Sinead. Let me touch on the broader question of what to expect in June. I think Chris, it’s worthwhile to sort of restate here that I continue to believe that our Powering Progress strategy is the right strategy for us and that the focus that at least I’m really keen to bring is how we’re going to operationalize that strategy. When we start from an incredibly privileged position; when you have something as strong as your current core Upstream business that is delivering significant value, higher margins, strong, strong performance overall; when you have this world-leading Integrated Gas business, of which we’ve been able to significant strength as well in 2022 with the many announcements we’ve made; and when you have the customer interface that we have with a very strong Marketing business, we start from a very strong position.

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