Shell plc (NYSE:SHEL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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We have seen nationalization in that sector. And so it is not a structurally advantaged sector for us to play in here in the U.K. It also meant we had to review our German and Dutch positions because they run off a lot of common infrastructure. It wouldn’t make sense to look at just one of them in isolation. That’s what triggers the review and our ability to be able to understand how we can — or what position we need to take going forward, and that will take a few months. Our broader low-carbon opportunities will, again, like everything else, also in our Upstream, be assessed on their own merits. Opportunities that we can see running room in, we’re going to continue to scale up and invest in and grow. And we’ve seen some of these opportunities, and we can talk about that as well in the coming hour.

On the — on where we are with Upstream. Having had the privilege of being with Sinead in the Upstream business at the time when we set these targets, we have indeed moved very fast on being able to monetize the parts of the portfolio that we felt did not fit into the broader core of what we wanted in the Upstream. And just as a reminder, we’ve done a lot of work in the Upstream over the past several years to fundamentally high grade the quality of that asset base. I referenced earlier in the morning, the fact that in 2014, at the similar Brent price, we were delivering — we had in 2022, 7% less production than we had in 2014, yet we’re able to deliver some 80-plus percent free cash flow and 70-plus percent earnings. And therefore, the quality of the Upstream has significantly improved as a result of this focus on value over volume.

As we look into the future, longevity of Upstream and our Upstream resource is a key focus area for me and for Sinead. That’s going to be something we focus on. More on exactly how that looks, I think, is better discussed in our Capital Markets Day in June 2023. But longevity is a core part of our focus. Thank you for that — for those two questions, Biraj.

Operator: The next question is from Christopher Kuplent at Bank of America Global Research.

Christopher Kuplent: Wael, let me take your last comment and ask you a very mean question. What else did you feel like you can’t tell us today that you’re going to focus on in June? So apologies already for that question. But maybe I might want to make a suggestion to review that payout ratio. How do you feel about the formal 20% to 30%? As you’ve highlighted, you’ve gone well beyond that. It seems a little outdated. So hopefully, we can look forward to an update on that front as well as the longevity point that you just made. So any other thoughts in terms of what keeps you busy as you prepare for June would be great. And I’m not asking for a full preview of that event. And then a quick one, hopefully, for Sinead. Just wondering whether you can give us a little bit of detail in terms of what you expect into Q1, Q2 when it comes to both the net working capital potentially a bit reversing as well as those derivative margining costs that went the other way in Q4.

Wael Sawan: Thanks, Chris. I’m going to ask Sinead, if you want to cover Q1, Q2 and maybe also the point around distributions. The — and then I’ll come back and cover any other items on June.

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